Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 7
The State of the Redskins: Revisited

In 1982 the Washington Redskins finished their four-game preseason slate without a win. Nine years later, the 'Skins managed to sneak out one victory in the exhibition season, albeit over a Patriots team that had finished 1-15 the year before.
Yet in both those seasons the preseason-deficient Redskins would hoist the Vince Lombardi trophy at year's end. Joe Gibbs was the coach for both of those campaigns, just as he is this year, when his team is struggling once again in the exhibition season, sputtering to an 0-3 start.
Is it time to sound the alarm in the nation's capital? Hardly. But it might be time to start tempering the enthusiasm that ran rampant in the District during the off-season. It's not that anything is different because of the 0-3 record, it's just that the Redskins' weaknesses are a lot more obvious than they were in January..
That's when I wrote my annual "State of the Redskins" address and touched on a few of the team's problem areas. The front office solved a few of them since then, but others were left as empty as Donovan McNabb's trophy case. Today, Chris's Sports Blog takes a look back... and a look forward.

Quarterback
What I wrote then: Just five months ago, Patrick Ramsey was the Washington Redskins’ quarterback of the future. The four-year veteran out of Tulane performed decently in 2004 and entered 2005 as the starter despite a ragged preseason and lingering questions about his decision-making ability and footwork. Mark Brunell outplayed him in training camp, but the old vet’s 2004 was such a disaster Joe Gibbs knew he had little choice but to go with the younger, stronger quarterback to begin the season, even as many observers believed Gibbs never wanted Ramsey and would be looking for any reason to make a switch. Their conspiracy theories were further fueled just 19 minutes into the season when an injury to Ramsey forced Brunell into action. After an ugly 9-7 win against the eventual NFC North champion Chicago Bears, Brunell was named the starter.
At the time there was a lot of hand-wringing over whether Gibbs was “fair” to Ramsey and whether the decision to re-insert Brunell into the starting lineup would pay off. There are no such doubts today. As I contended before the season, Gibbs always knew Patrick Ramsey couldn’t be his starting quarterback. He took too many sacks, made too many mistakes and would never be able to get a first down with his feet. Still, it was a necessary, if disingenuous, move to start the year with Ramsey considering how poorly Brunell played in 2004.
Steve Smith deserved his NFL Comeback Player of the Year award, but if there was an honor for Most Shocking Comeback, Brunell would have won in a landslide. It’s easy to forget just how awful he was in 2004; his throws had no zip, it appeared he never got set before throwing and there was just a general sense of unease every time he dropped back to pass. Eight months ago, it appeared signing Brunell to a $43 million deal would go down as one of the worst free agent deals in NFL history. Some feared it would sink the comeback of Joe Gibbs. Consider: In his nine years as an NFL starter, Brunell’s QB rating was between 82 and 91 in each season. In 2004 his passer rating was 62.9.
But a funny thing happened on the way to FedEx Field in 2005; Brunell looked great in the preseason. There had been talk during the previous year about how injured he was and how his bum knee was the cause of his problems, not a precipitous drop in talent. All that seemed to make sense as Brunell looked like he had found a fountain of youth in the off-season.
Everyone knew he was better than Ramsey, but Gibbs still had to stick with Patrick if only to appease his players who wanted to see what they could do with the younger QB before settling on the old one. The Redskins got lucky Ramsey went down early in the season; it might have been two or three games before he got pulled otherwise and Washington needed each of their three straight opening-season wins they got with Brunell.
Now, Ramsey is as good as gone from Washington. During Al Saunders’ introductory press conference, Joe Gibbs mentioned how lucky his quarterbacks, Mark Brunell and Jason Campbell, were to be working with such an offensive guru. Not once did Gibbs mention Ramsey’s name. If they’re lucky, the Redskins will get a mid-round draft pick for him.
Brunell is firmly entrenched as the starter in 2006, but the controversy-lovers in the Nation’s Capital will be calling for Jason Campbell at the first sign of trouble next season. They’ll point to how Brunell broke down at the end of 2005 and will incorrectly infer the 36-year old can’t make it through a season healthy. Whether that’s really the case is probably irrelevant to them.
One thing is true though; Mark Brunell was totally ineffective in the team’s three January games. But it’s important to remember why: Brunell re-aggravated his chronic knee injury in the team’s second-to-last game of the season and was playing on that injury for the rest of the year.
In the two games before the Giants Nick Greisen plowed into his knee, Brunell was 19/31 for 275 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT and a stellar 116.3 QB rating. In the two games after suffering the injury, Brunell was 16/40 for 182 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT and an anemic 41.9 QB rating.
It wasn’t as much a matter of Brunell breaking down because of his age than it was him breaking down because he suffered an injury that could happen to anyone. That knee will always be a problem for Brunell, but he seemed fine on it before the Giants game. As long as his knee stays healthy, there’s no reason to think Brunell won’t be too. (Maybe that’s a big if, but no more than the Falcons hoping Michael Vick stays healthy.)
With Ramsey gone, Jason Campbell will move into the backup role. Campbell worked closely will the now-departed Bill Musgrave every day this season and should be ready to go if Brunell should be unable to play. With Saunders freeing up Joe Gibbs from play-calling duties, Gibbs and others will have more time to work with the young Campbell too. Mark Brunell will start the season, but it’s naïve to think Jason Campbell won’t get at least some playing time at some point in 2006.
The team will likely grab a veteran to be their third-string QB. Not too many high-profile guys will willingly sign on for that role, so it could be slim-pickens. Among the possible names: Charlie Batch, Todd Collins or Tim Hasselbeck.
What I think now: The situation hasn't changed. Ramsey was traded to the Jets for a low-round draft choice and Brunell still is Joe's main-man. Jason Campbell has looked terrible in the pre-season and it's tough to imagine him getting any playing time this season unless it's absolutely necessary. That doesn't mean there won't be a controversy if Brunell should falter. His pre-season performance has been pedestrian, at best, but I'll save that discussion for a later date.

Running back
What I wrote then: With different blocking schemes to run behind, Clinton Portis experienced a return to form this year after a disappointing 2004 campaign. Portis broke the Redskins rushing record with 1,516 yards and found the endzone 11 times.
By the end of the season, though, Portis was beat-up with a variety of ailments stemming from his 352 carries and all the punishing blocks he threw in pass protection. Unlike many backs (Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson), CP enjoys throwing vicious blocks on defenders. But that comes at a price, as his late-season shoulder problems showed.
In 2006, the Redskins need to cutback on Portis’ carries, inserting Ladell Betts into the lineup on more downs. Betts had 89 carries this year, but needs to get that total up to about 120 to give Portis some rest so he can be fresh for a playoff run. (It’s no surprise Portis’ two highest rush totals in 2005 came in weeks where Betts was out with an injury.)
Al Saunders never runs the same play twice, so having two effective backs should help with his element of surprise. I’m no fan of alternating possessions between running backs; I just think Portis could stand lowering his carries to around 290 or 300 and avoid running into traffic in the middle, which is Betts’ forte.
Third-string RB Rock Cartwright is a free agent and shouldn’t draw too much interest from the rest of the league. He’s not a vital component of the team, but in the interest of stability, the team should make a concerted effort to re-sign him.
What I think now: The obvious counterpoint to my argument about how preseason records don't matter is that the Redskins aren't just 0-3, they're 0-3 and have looked absolutely terrible in every aspect of the game. It's a fair point, to be sure. But I've got two retorts in my back pocket along with a crumpled one-dollar bill and a movie stub to The Devil Wears Prada. Don't laugh. That shit was good.
First, Clinton Portis is out. For as good as Brunell and Santana Moss were last year, Portis was, without a doubt, the offensive MVP for the Redskins. Without his presence in the rushing attack, defenses would blitz Brunell and smother Moss. But with Portis setting a Redskins rushing record, defensive coordinators had to make defending him their #1 priority. Without Portis, the Redskins are in trouble. It's no coincidence the first-team offense has had anemic outputs without him.
Secondly, picture new offensive coordinator Al Saunders as a contestant in the NBA dunk contest. Would he pull out his 360-reverse-double-windmill while jumping over a Buick in the first-round? Of course not. He's going to play it safe until it matters, then he'll break out the big guns.
The Redskins have the element of surprise at their advantage. Why would they waste any offensive strategy in game's that don't matter?
Back to the running backs, I was a big fan of the TJ Duckett acquisition. Duckett isn't a superstar, but he's a beast in short yardage situations. Putting him in on the goalline instead of Portis might upset Clinton's fantasy owners, but it will limit his wear and tear and leave him fresher late in the season. In my "SOTR" I said Gibbs needs to limit Portis' carries. Having a guy like Duckett around is the first-step to making that happen.

Wide Receiver
What I wrote then: There are two key positions the Redskins need to address this off-season and wide receiver is one of them.
In a year in which Santana Moss broke the Redskins record for receiving yards, Chris Cooley broke the record for yards and receptions by a tight end and Clinton Portis bested the team’s rushing mark, the fact that Washington receivers not named Santana grabbed just 48 catches is unacceptable.
By the end of the season, Santana was drawing double and triple coverage, yet the Redskins other wideouts couldn’t get open enough to catch a single ball. In the year’s final five games, those other WRs caught just three passes. Total.
David Patten was an unqualified bust, snaring just 22 balls for a 9.9 yard average before suffering a season-ending injury in November. His complaints about not getting enough throws didn’t exactly endear him to teammates and coaches either. (You want more balls? Get open then. And when you actually manage to do that, hold onto the ball.) The ex-Patriot is signed for two more years and, while he could return to the ‘Skins, it certainly won’t be as the #2 receiver.
Taylor Jacobs, the final legacy of the immortal Steve Spurrier era, makes the Eagles receiving corps look like All-Pros and he will most definitely be gone. James Thrash is a fine #3 receiver, but should never be anything more than that. His special teams value makes him a likely candidate to return.
There’s little doubt Daniel Snyder will make a push to sign the most coveted free-agent wideout on the market, Reggie Wayne, to be his #2 receiver. The Colts will make every effort to re-sign him (apparently, if it should come down to re-signing Wayne or Edgerrin James, the Colts would go with Wayne), but Snyder has been known to make Corleonesque offers in the past.
Reggie would likely command big dollars from a mediocre team like the Titans or Ravens to become their #1 receiver, or he could sign with a proven team with a chance to win for similar money and become their #2. What he does is anybody’s guess.
With the prevalence of Redskins players from The U (Moss, Portis, Sean Taylor), my hope is that they’ll tell Reggie how much they love playing for Gibbs (Moss and Portis practically get teary-eyed talking about their Hall of Fame coach) and convince him to sign here. Such a scenario has become the talk of D.C. so much that when I told my mom Santana was on Wheel of Fortune and she saw Reggie Wayne on the show also, she exclaimed, “I bet Santana’s telling him to come to the Redskins!” Whether or not they’ll have enough cap room to lure him remains to be seen.
Watching Snyder operate over the past seven years, I’ve learned never to put anything past him, so I guess there’s a chance Reggie Wayne could be in the burgundy and gold next season. Still, I think he’ll stay in Indy with his choking dog quarterback, content to succeed in the regular season and flame out in the playoffs.
If Wayne doesn’t sign, expect to hear a lot about Antwan Randle-El. If that’s the case, expect to read a lot (on this site) about how that would be a terrible signing and won’t help the Redskins at all. I like Randle-El a lot, but he’s no #2 receiver. He’s the quintessential big-play threat as a third wideout. In that role, I love him. As a guy you need to catch a difficult ball on a big third down, not so much. The problem is, it’s a pretty weak list after Wayne, so Randle-El will certainly draw attention. A guy like Joe Jurevicius would fit in well in Washington, but his asking price could skyrocket if he catches a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Keenan McCardell was originally drafted by the Redskins in the 12th round of the 1991 draft. He could return to Washington to finish up his career. Or, the ‘Skins could attempt to find a #2 receiver in the draft, but without a first-round pick, that could be difficult. If none of that works, there’s always Rod Gardner.
What I think now: Hmm... I knew I was against the Randle-El signing, but didn't realize how much so until now. I think I still agree with what I said back in January though. Randle-El is a versatile big-play threat, but he's not a #2 wideout. Luckily, the Redskins didn't sign him to be a #2 wideout. By trading for Brandon Lloyd, the 'Skins have a talented (if erratic) possession receiver to line-up opposite Moss and are free to put Randle-El in the slot or use him in whatever way possible.
Lloyd is sort of like a more-talented version of Rod Gardner (able to make the impossible catch, but just as able to drop the easy one), but I'm reserve judgment on him until the season starts. I watched too few 49ers games to know much about their team other than the sheer incompetence of Mike Rumph. (Don't worry. We'll get to him soon enough.)

Tight End/H-Back
What I said then: Chris Cooley established himself as the premiere tight end/fullback in the NFC this season. That Alge Crumpler (?!), Jeremy Shockey, Desmond Clark and Mack Strong made the Pro Bowl over him further exposes the Pro Bowl roster as the biggest fraud in sports. No matter. Shockey can have his Pro Bowl spot, Cooley will take a playoff win.
The second-year man out of Utah State is a jack-of-all-traders on the football field and off. He catches, he runs, he scores, he blocks on both the inside and outside and he gets cheerleaders fired about having intimate relations with ‘em. In short, I love Chris Cooley.
I have man-love for Mike Sellers too, but not as much as Joe Gibbs does. The Hall of Famer always has a rough and rugged guy lining up in the backfield and opening holes for RBs and Seller is his guy this time around. Teams have to pay so much attention to Sellers the blocker that he is left alone when he roams up the field, which led to seven touchdowns this season. Robert Royal is a free-agent and should be brought back, again, for the sake of continuity. Royal redeemed himself late in the season after a case of the dropsies plagued him early on.
What I think now: Well, for starters, the H-back position no longer exists. Al Saunders got rid of the Gibbs-created moniker to better fit his offense. Madden '07 might refer to Cooley as a fullback, but we'll consider him a tight end, even though he'll doubtlessly line up ahead of Portis every now and again.
Except for that terminology-change, the 'Skins didn't change much at the position. They signed ex-Pat Christian Fauria, but I sort of have the feeling he'll be one of those guys that won't do much until he catches a meaningless touchdown in October, leading people nationwide to ask their friends, "wait, the Redskins have Christian Fauria?"

Offensive Line
What I wrote then: In last year’s State of the Redskins address, I made the point that Joe Gibbs’ first season back with the team ended before it started when Jon Jansen went down with a season-ending injury in the first quarter of the team’s first preseason game. The offensive line was never the same after that.
This year, the Dirtbags were everything everyone believed they’d be last year. Jansen, Randy Thomas and Casey Rabach dominated the line of scrimmage, while Derrick Dockery was much improved in his third season. Chris Samuels was streaky, as usual, and simply isn’t as good as his massive salary indicates he should be. Far too often Samuels gets beat on the outside by defensive ends and exposes Brunell to hits he can’t afford to take. Simeon Rice, in particular, totally ate Samuels up in both match-ups this season.
The injury to Randy Thomas in the Cowboys game killed Washington, particularly in the Divisional Playoffs when 43-year old Ray Brown went down with cramps and ex-center Cory Raymer was pressed into guard duty. Thomas is the forgotten man on the line, mainly because you never hear his name called during games. He gets the job done quietly and controls his area with ease. His return from a broken leg will be eagerly anticipated.
Even with Samuels’ deficiencies and high salary, he should return along with the rest of the line. Joe Bugel always says lines get better with time and experience, so it stands to reason 2006 will be the best year yet for his Dirtbags. The only thing the front office needs to do is get some depth so injuries to any of the lineman won’t be as devastating as it was this year. Not that replacing Jon Jansen or Randy Thomas will ever not be devastating.
What I think now: Everybody is healthy.............................................................................................................................................................. (sorry, I've been knocking on wood for the past 45 minutes.)

Defensive Line
What I wrote then: Cornelius Griffin was the Redskins defensive MVP in 2005. When healthy, opposing teams had great difficult running against Washington. Fellow tackle Joe Salave’a also battled injuries, but was greatly improved in his second year with Gregg Williams. They form a dominating middle of the line for Washington.
The problem on the Redskins defensive line was on the ends. Very rarely would the line ever get pressure with a four-man rush, something that’s crucial in Williams’ defense. With the linebackers and corners playing a soft-zone, pressure on the QB is pivotal for turnovers and coverage sacks. Without any pass rush, mediocre QBs like Eli Manning and Kerry Collins picked the Redskins apart.
Look for Washington to draft a D-end with their second-round pick (assuming they don’t package that pick, Ramsey and a future #1 to move up this year). The free-agents at the position are uninspiring, unless Snyder can find the money to sign the Titans’ Kyle Vanden Bosch or the 49ers' Andre Carter.
What I think now: They didn't draft a D-end (going with LB Rocky McIntosh instead), but Snyder did open up his checkbook for Carter. It's a big improvement.

Linebackers
What I wrote then: With Patrick Ramsey already stepping out the door, the Redskins biggest question headed into the off-season is what to do about LaVar Arrington.
Arrington hasn’t been healthy in two seasons, has clashed with coaches, was benched earlier this season and filed a grievance against the team (since dropped) for allegedly removing $6.5 million from his contract. At this point. LaVar will count a team-high $12 million against the cap in 2006 if released, but only $7 million if retained. If they do keep him, LaVar would likely defer some money to future years, lowering his cap number even more for 2006. This would enable Washington to sign some free agents (Reggie Wayne, perhaps). If LaVar is let go anytime before July 15, the ‘Skins would eat the $12 million but be clean in 2007.
LaVar has repeatedly demonstrated his big-play capabilities during his time with the Redskins, but his early-season benching was due to his resistance to playing within Gregg Williams’ system. LaVar has the reputation of a freelancer who often overruns plays, a big no-no in schemes were player positioning is of the utmost importance.
According to published reports, Arrington would be willing to restructure his contract to give the Redskins some additional cap flexibility. Whether this is just posturing on LaVar’s part remains to be seen, but I do think he would prefer remaining with the Redskins. Any contract he signs with another team won’t approach the money he’ll be getting if he stays in Washington, which could be the main reason for his change of stance. (Weeks ago it appeared there was no shot LaVar would return.)
Ideally, the team would renegotiate a contract with LaVar and he would return. In spite of his dislike for him, Williams has to realize the Redskins defense is better with LaVar on the field. Arrington certainly isn’t worth the money he’ll get if he stays, but the ‘Skins are getting a steal with Marcus Washington (six years, $24 million), so they can afford it.
Whatever does happen, people will claim they saw it coming all along. “He was never going to leave,” or “of course he had to go, it was obvious” will be popular stances depending on which direction the team decides to go. At the moment, it’s a mystery. I have no clue what the Washington Redskins will do with LaVar Arrington. If I had to bet, I’d say LaVar stays, mainly so the ‘Skins won’t have to stomach eating up 1/8th of their cap to a player not on the roster. But if he goes, it won’t be a shock. The problem with releasing a guy like LaVar is that he’ll be so motivated to prove the Redskins wrong he’ll sign with an NFC East team just to play them twice and end up with something like eight sacks and four interceptions in those two games. LaVar is no Kwame Brown, he can turn it on when he wants to. Hopefully he’ll want to here.
What I think now: Wow, I had no idea the LaVar situation was that unclear last January. Looking back, I had sort of figured we all knew LaVar wasn't long for Washington after his mid-season benching and erratic performance. But I guess even those in the anti-LaVar camp (as I was in 2005) still were holding on to the hope that LaVar would finally harness all the potential he had shown ever since blocking that kick while wearing #11 at Penn State. Oh well. Good riddance. Enjoy the blown tackles and $12 million cap hit you'll have to take when you cut him in 2008, Giants fans.

Secondary
What I wrote then: The Redskins need depth at cornerback in a big way. Carlos Rogers should show vast improvement next season and if Shawn Springs can stay healthy, the pair will form a formidable duo at corner. Walt Harris will be fine as a nickel back, but with the injury-prone Springs, Gibbs and Vinny Cerrato need to bring another player in just in case.
Hopefully our long, local nightmare will end and Ade Jimoh won’t be re-signed, but the coaches love him on special teams, so expect to see Jimoh back in uniform blowing coverages and face-guarding against the dredges of the NFL’s receiving corps.
Aside from getting Sean Taylor some anger-management courses and hiring the writers from Prison Break to concoct an elaborate scheme to get him out of prison should he be convicted at his upcoming trial, there’s not much work to be done at safety.
Ryan Clark is hardly my favorite player, but he should be re-signed because of his familiarity with Gregg Williams system.
What I think now: They signed Mike Rumph. Take a wild frickin' guess as to what I'm thinking now.

Special Teams
What I wrote then: Cut punter Derrick Frost. It should have been done yesterday. Actually, it should have been done back in September, but that’s neither here not there. Frost made Kelly Goodburn look like Ray Guy. How many 17-yard punts can a team survive, particularly one with a streaky offense? The team claimed Frost was necessary because of his ability to hold for their kicker, but how hard can it be to catch a ball and put the laces out? Couldn’t a trained seal do that? Get rid of that shank-punting putz, draft All-American Ryan Plackemeier from Wake Forest or sign that guy from the CFL everybody’s been talking about.
John Hall also has to go. Anybody who gets paid $1.4 million shouldn’t be missing critical 36-yard field goals in playoff games, nor should they have lingering hamstring issues that causes them to miss five games during the season. Either find a kicker in free agency (Vanderjagt, perhaps) or bring back Nick Novak. And I wouldn’t mind firing special teams coach Danny Smith either, but since I've been preaching the whole “stability” thing, that would kind of be hypocritical. Just get rid of Frost and Hall and we’ll be cool, Danny.
What I think now: It's probably not good to get me started on the Redskins special teams right now. I just got back from listening to Bob Dylan's new masterpiece Modern Times and in 34 hours I'm leaving for a five-day bachelor party in Montreal. There's too much excitement and happiness surrounding me at the moment to bring in the negative energy that the word "Derrick Frost" will inevitably bring. But, dammit, it's too late. So I'll be brief.
Today the Redskins signed punter Eddie Johnson (not the ex-NBA player arrested for kiddie porn, nor the ex-NBA player also named Eddie Johnson who was confused for the ex-NBA player Eddie Johnson arrested for kiddie porn) to compete with Derrick Frost. It's nice that after one month of training camp and three preseason games special teams coach Danny Smith finally saw what a moron could have seen back in January; namely, that Derrick Frost is as worthless as... No, nothing's more worthless than Derrick Frost.
The mere mention of his name sends into a frothing rage that can only be calmed by Very Cherry Jelly Bellys or Crown Royal. But not both. Unless I'm drinking a Manhattan, because sometimes the two can prove to be delightful compliments.
Frost has been as terrible in the preseason as he was last regular season and apparently Smith had enough of the 23-yard shank punts. Seriously, the only time Frost can hit a punt over 45 yards is when he's standing on the opponents 44-yard line. If he played baseball he'd probably overthrow the catcher from left-field, but skip the ball on the pitcher's mound while at second. It's absolutely uncanny. There are many things in this world that I don't understand. Yet how the Redskins could go into the season with Derrick Frost as their punter is at the top of the list.
Field position is of the utmost importance in the NFL, particularly now with parity dominating the sport and a few yards dictating a playoff season and one spent fretting over lost opportunities. Teams don't place much emphasis on their special teams (as evidenced by the Patriots unbelievable abdonment of Adam Vinatieri), yet every season at least one team's season is ruined by a botched kick or crappy punter.
Sadly, the Redskins have both. And becaues it's too late to get started on John Hall, I'll mention that the Cardinals cut Nick Novak today. Take it as a sign, Danny Smith.

As I said earlier, I'm leaving for Montreal early Thursday morning, so I won't be posting anything until Tuesday, September 5. The NFC Preview will appear that day, with the AFC to follow on Wednesday. On Thursday I'll give my playoff predictions and Friday will see the debut of my weekly NFL picks. We're almost there, people. Just seven more days.

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 6
What The Hell?

It seems Daniel Snyder's love of free agents isn't relegated to the football field. The Los Angeles Times is reporting Snyder leads a group that has signed recently fired and always insane Tom Cruise to a movie production deal worth $3 million annually.
Len Pasquarelli says Cruise's deal will make it tough for the Redskins to come in under the salary cap in 2007, but that their e-meter ratings will be off the charts. Cruise reportedly offered his service at quarterback should Mark Brunell struggle this season, but after watching the All the Right Moves DVD, Joe Gibbs and Al Saunders told Snyder to sign that dude from Varsity Blues instead.

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 5
Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The Sleepers & The Creepers

The sleepers and the creepers. Sounds like a doo-wop group from the '50s. I can practically hear the DJ on the oldies radio station announce the name in his radio-guy voice. But I digress.
My first fantasy draft is just about over, but my second one begins Monday. I'm usually not paranoid (except when I think the bush next to my mailbox is looking at me) and it's not like I think the guys in my money league are going to turn my draft board into their own, but a sleeper is a little different. All it takes is one good thing written about a player you hadn't had on your radar to convince you he might have an alright season. It wouldn't necessarily be because I wrote he'd be good, but after seeing the name "Antonio Bryant" under "sleeper" an opposing player might let their imagination go crazy and start thinking, "somebody has to catch balls in San Francisco. And they're down in nearly all their games so they're going to throw. And Alex Smith can't be as bad as he was last year. Yeah, Antonio Bryant is going to be huge!" Using that stab at logic, I'm going to hold back on my my list of sleepers until next week after my draft.
In the meantime, a few thoughts from the past few days:

- With the demotion of Pluto's planetary status, the Saved By The Bell where Zack wins the quiz bowl by naming the planets thank to his pneumonic device "MVEMJSUNP" suddenly becomes horribly dated. As do we. The Wolfman put it nicely in an e-mail yesterday after a discussion about how old guys are always running into crowds of people with their cars:

The sad thing is that that's going to be us soon, driving into crowds of people, talking about how there used to be 9 planets, tvs weren't all flat screen when we were young, etc.. Plus, now it would be MVEMJSUN, kids are going to watch it and laugh just the way I laughed when Mr. Angelino told Jack on Three's Company, "Tripper, it's the 70s."

- Bill Simmons wrote a mailbag a few days ago. Take a guess as to whether he answered any e-mail about his whiny, excuse-filled poker column. Go ahead! Take a shot! I'll give you a hint: The answer is the same thing Bill Simmons heard every time he tried to get a girl to hook-up with him in college.
This begs the question: Does Simmons even acknowledge that people think he's an egomaniacal hack or does he attribute the hate-mail he doubtlessly gets to angry Yankees fans? Think about all the other writers on internet sports sites who have mailbags. Every single one puts in at least one or two rips per column. Dr. Z thrives on it. Does Simmons think if he doesn't print it everybody reading will think he's infallible and is loved by all? Somebody needs to answer this question for me. Maybe I'll run into his buddy House tonight in D.C. and he'll straighten all this out.

- Remember that Duke lacrosse case? Yeah, neither did I, until a story appeared in the The New York Times today saying, "[An examination of 1,850 pages of evidence reveals] that while there are big weaknesses in Mr. Nifong’s case, there is also a body of evidence to support his decision to take the matter to a jury."
Among this body of evidence that supports his decision:

The defense has argued that the accuser gave many divergent versions of events that night, and she did in fact give differing accounts of who did what at the party. But the files show that aside from two brief early conversations with the police, she gave largely consistent accounts of being raped by three men in a bathroom.

Translation: After changing her story three times, she finally came up with the "three men in a bathroom" account. The Times article goes on to indicate how a report from a Durham police sergeant, one that was not handed over to the prosecution until well after the players had been arrested, strengthens the D.A.'s case, but that the sergeant recounted those notes from memory because he "took few handwritten notes."
Other nuggets in the story that "support [Nifong's] decision to take the matter to a jury":

* There is no DNA evidence directly linking the suspects to the accuser.
* The array of photographs used to identify the suspects violated generally accepted guidelines for lineups, because it included only lacrosse team members. Defense lawyers have challenged it in court, arguing that all evidence that followed from the identifications should be thrown out.
* One suspect, Reade Seligmann, has what appears to be a powerful alibi, based on a cellphone log and other records that show he left the party early.

Where, may I ask, is the evidence that "supports his decision to take the matter to a jury"? Duff Wilson and Jonathan Glater did a wonderful job reporting their lengthy story, but their assertion that Nifong was right to bring the matter to a jury is totally contradictory to everything they reported. Except for the victim appearing to be in extreme pain, there isn't a single shred of evidence that anything nefarious happened at the lacrosse house that night.
I'm not quite sure how that constitutes a trial. But, then again, I wasn't up for re-election.

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 4
Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Tight Ends/Kickers/Defense

Unless you get Antonio Gates, your tight end, kicker and team defense does not matter. The end.

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 3
Fantasy Football Cheet Sheet: Receivers

1) Chad Johnson – Cincinnati Bengals – 97 cth, 1,472 yds, 9 TD
2) Steve Smith – Carolina Panthers – 103 cth, 1,563 yds, 13 TD
3) Marvin Harrison – Indianapolis Colts – 82 cth, 1,146 yds, 12 TD
4) Torry Holt – St. Louis Rams – 102 cth, 1,331 yds, 9 TD
Johnson, Smith, Harrison and Holt. It could be the name of a stuffy law firm instead of the top of the top of a fantasy draft board. I kind of wish it were a law firm though, because how great would it be to witness Chad Johnson give an opening statement in a three piece suit, resplendent with grills and his blond mohawk. He’d probably spike the gavel and propose to juror #4 after his closing. But I digress.)
Johnson sneaks ahead of Smith on my board because of the (relatively) poor finish he had in ’05. Smith's four highest producing fantasy games all came in the first half of the season and seven of his nine lowest came after November 1. Granted, even when Smith was “bad” he was still great, but Johnson’s 97 catch, 1,500 yard season was the rule, not the exception. Smith will be one of the top fantasy receivers this year, but he’s not scoring 13 TD again.
It’s also consistency that puts Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt in the next two slots. Those two might not finish the year at #3 and #4, but it’s a safe bet they’ll be in the top ten. Because it’s tough to make that same guarantee for any player below them, those two are solid picks.

5) Anquan Boldin – Arizona Cardinals
6) Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals
Nearly every draft board I’ve seen has Larry over Anquan, so I’m going to be contrary for the sake of it and put Anquan ahead of Larry on mine. Don’t get me wrong, I love me some Larry Fitzgerald; he was my main sleeper last year and I rode his coattails to the playoffs. But Boldin came on strong in the second half of last season and his name is a lot cooler. In reality, you can’t go wrong with either of these Cardinals. And yes, I realize how absurd that statement sounds. I don’t care if Arizona wins three Super Bowls in a row, praising anything about their organization will always seem strange.

7) Terrell Owens – Dallas Cowboys
Initially I had Owens at #6, but I bumped him down to #7 so Boldin and Fitzgerald could snuggle-in together and I could combine their blurbs. Do something about it.
Owens clearly has the most upside of any receiver available. If he’s on his best behavior, he’ll finish the year in the top three. But I’m not willing to take that risk. Cowboys training camp has had more drama than an episode of Days of Our Lives and it’s foolish to think it will stop there. My advice is to only draft Owens if you’re comfortable with your running back and don’t see a great second RB on the board. Don’t reach for him or you could be burned in November when he’s doing sit-ups on his driveway. Or you could ride him to the championship. I’ve been a big help, haven’t I?

8) Santana Moss – Washington Redskins
Conventional wisdom: Santana Moss, the surprise #2 overall receiver last year, will experience a huge drop-off in ’06 because of the Redskins' acquisitions of Antwaan Randle-El and Brandon Lloyd.
The rebuttal: Santana Moss’ numbers won’t suffer that much because he’ll see less double teams thanks to the Redskins acquisitions of Antwaan Randle-El and Brandon Lloyd.
By the end of last season Santana was getting grabbed more than a cocktail waitress at a Kennedy family function. Teams were practically focusing their entire secondaries on him. With Randle-El and Lloyd to spread things out, Santana should see more single coverage and could be just as valuable a fantasy player as he was last season.

9) Hines Ward – Pittsburgh Steelers
The only season Hines Ward has been a fantasy disappointment is the year he was on my team. I didn’t draft him this year. You do the math.

10) Chris Chambers – Miami Dolphins
If you read yesterday’s blog, you know I’m weary of Daunte, hence Chambers relatively low position on my board. He’ll still be solid but (and I know how ridiculous this sounds) maybe he was better off with Gus Frerrote throwing him balls.

11) Randy Moss – Oakland Raiders
He should be lower, considering how disappointing he was last season playing with a QB who was actually able to throw the ball on target occasionally. Now with Aaron Brooks at the helm, I’m not quite sure how Moss intends to get the ball, unless he’s going to wear the uniform of the opposing team.

12) Donald Driver – Green Bay Packers
Ditto for Driver.

13) Andre Johnson – Houston Texans
14) Joe Horn – New Orleans Saints
15) Derrick Mason – Baltimore Ravens
Call ‘em the comeback kids. Or, in Horn and Mason’s case, the comeback guys over 30.
Don’t sleep on Andre Johnson. No, seriously, I hear the dude is real cranky in the morning. Maybe it’s because I took A.J. in my draft, but I think he’s due for a return to his 2004 self. Take a look at Johnson’s receiving mates last season: Derrick Armstrong, Corey Bradford, Jabar Gaffney, Jerome Mathis and Donovan Morgan. Those guys shouldn’t be cracking the roster of the University of Houston, let alone an NFL team. The addition of Eric Moulds (however old and decrepit as he might be) will take the load of Johnson, who will be the most improved fantasy receiver of the year.
I’m reluctant to recommend Joe Horn after he single-handedly ruined my season last year, but we’ll chalk that up to Katrina and predict Joe makes a good comeback himself in 2006.
As for Mason, he’s reunited with his old buddy Steve McNair. Last time the pair were together and healthy, Mason was one of the best receivers in the game. They’re a little older and more injured now, but they’ll make each other (and the Ravens) better.

16) T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Cincinnati Bengals
I’m rarely comfortable taking a #2 WR higher than a #1, but I make an exception for anybody with 14 letters in their last name.

17) Rod Smith – Detroit Lions
18) Plaxico Burress – New York Giants
19) Roy Williams – Detroit Lions
Roy should improve with a better quarterback, Rod Smith’s numbers shouldn’t take too much of a tumble with Javon Walker joining him on the line of scrimmage and Plaxico Burress might have finished ’05 as the 11^th rated wideout, but his games of 6, 5, 4, 7, 5, 4, 3, 3 and 4 fantasy points should tell you all you need to know. (Almost one-third of Plax’s fantasy points were scored in two games.)

20) Joey Galloway – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
21) Javon Walker – Denver Broncos
22) Antonio Bryant – San Francisco 49ers
23) Reggie Wayne – Indianapolis Colts
24) Lee Evans – Buffalo Bills
Flip a coin. One of these players is bound for a big fall (Galloway?), one is due for a huge season (Evans?) and another will spend the year cursing the small hands of his quarterback (Bryant).

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 2
Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Quarterbacks

1) Peyton Manning – Indianapolis Colts – 3,747 yds, 28 TD, 10 INTFantasy football quarterbacks are sort of like refrigerators. Everybody has one, everybody needs one and, in the end, it doesn’t matter how much you spend as long as it keeps the food cold. (The previous statement of course excludes that fridge with the TV built into the door. Because that’s just awesome.)
For instance: Peyton Manning is a near-lock to be a top-three fantasy quarterback. He was the second-best two years ago (yes, Peyton wasn’t the top QB in his 49 TD year) and third-best last year. Overall, Peyton was the 7^th best fantasy player in 2005 and there’s no reason to think this year will be any different. But is it worth it to take Peyton in the top 10? I think not. (Of course, I used my first two picks on Domanick Davis and Reggie Bush this year, so take anything I say with any speck of salt that makes a grain of salt look like a boulder.)
Here’s my reasoning: Peyton has never been the top-scoring fantasy QB in his career. And even though he finishes so highly overall, the difference between Peyton and the 10^th best quarterback isn't nearly as much as between the running back you'll get in Peyton's spot and the one you'll have to settle for if you wait. That made sense in my head.
Peyton scored 283 fantasy points in 2005. Kerry Collins, a quarterback without a job for 2006, scored just 20 points fewer than Peyton, finishing with 263. The immobile Drew Bledsoe had 254 points, a green Eli Manning dropped 260 and even the hobbled Mark Brunell finished the season with 233 after going undrafted in nearly every league. For three points a game you could have had Mark Brunell off the scrap heap in week one instead of using a first-round pick on Peyton Manning.
Instead of getting a top-eight and top-fifteen RB, you’d get a quarterback who outscores Drew Bledsoe by two points a game and a top-fifteen RB. And don’t forget that you still have to get a second RB likely in the third round, when you could have a choice between Corey Dillon, Chester Taylor and Jamal Lewis. Those aren’t terrible backs, but would you rather them and Peyton’s two additional points or a stable corps of backs that you can feel confident in?
Peyton should be atop your fantasy draft board, but I wouldn’t take him until the late-second round (when you can figure out which backs will still be left by the time it comes around to you again).

2) Tom Brady – New England Patriots – 4,110 yds, 26 TD, 14 INT, 1 rsh TD
The steroid-addled, goat-loving, cleft-chinned Golden Boy actually finished ahead of Archie Manning’s second-born loser son in fantasy points last year, so you can feel confident taking him as the second quarterback provided Balco doesn’t raid the Pats locker room in the near future. (You know how Barry Bonds’ head grew when he on the juice? Brady’s chin-dimple has actually gotten so big James Cameron is shooting his next movie in it’s deepest point. This ain’t a coincidence, kids.)
I heard somebody say that the absence of Deion Branch would hurt Brady’s numbers, a statement that presupposes the Patriots have nobody else on their roster who can run a route and stick their hands up to catch the ball from Brady that will be directly on target. Hell, Bill Belichick could probably sign Mike Rumph, convert him to receiver and get him 65 catches in the system. I don’t think they’re going to miss Deion Branch too much in New England. Deion Branch! That shit’s laughable, man. Ha!

3) Eli Manning – New York Giants – 3,762 yds, 24 TD, 17 INT, 1 rsh TD
No, it’s not a typo. Hear me out before you delete this bookmark and send me hate mail. Believe me, I’m no happier about putting Eli at #3 than you are reading it. But these are the facts: Eli Manning was a crappy quarterback in 2005. You were there, you saw it. And if you came to this site during last season, you read all about it. Yet even with all the overthrows, the underthrows, the interceptions and the dorky interviews (seriously, did you see him on PTI the other day? He made Bill Simmons look like Sammy Davis Jr), Eli still somehow managed to finish as the #5 overall QB in traditional scoring leagues. Yeah, I don’t get it either.
Working under the assumption that Eli will be a little better this season, it stands to reason that his fantasy numbers will improve as well. I wouldn’t take him with the 45^th pick (cough, ANTZO, cough), but in the mid-5^th or early-6^th he’ll be a solid pick-up. Now, if your league starts awarding points for looking like an eight-year old, you’ll lock up your championship before the season even begins.

4) Carson Palmer – Cincinnati Bengals - 3,836 yds, 32 TD, 12 INT, 1 rsh TD
If not for the horrific knee injury Palmer suffered in the playoffs, he’d be the #1 quarterback on the board. As it is, I’m reluctant to put him this high for two reasons: 1) Doctors say his injury normally needs 12-16 months of recovery. 2) I guess I didn’t have another reason.
It’s not good that Palmer has kept himself out of preseason games so far. (I don’t quite understand the criticism he’s getting either. Would Marvin Lewis prefer Palmer rush things to get back for a meaningless preseason game? It’s not like he’s unfamiliar with the offense. Why force it? I guess the only way to get on the coach’s good side is to knock-off a pawn shop.) He clearly isn’t physically or mentally ready for football. When he is, he’ll be one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Good luck guessing when that will be.

5) Marc Bulger – St. Louis Rams – 2,297 yds, 14 TD, 9 INT
Bulger put up those numbers in only eight games; if you double them to see what he might have done in a full 16 contests, Bulger would have finished with 308 fantasy points, just one behind #1 QB Carson Palmer.
If Bulger is healthy (and all indications are that he is), he could be a steal in the middle rounds. I suppose it is worth noting that Bulger had never played in 16 games and has missed a total of 11 starts since 2004. (Note: I took Bulger with the 60th pick in my draft. He was the 10th QB taken overall.)

6) Matt Hasselbeck – Seattle Seahawks – 3,459 yds, 24 TD, 9 INT, 1 rsh TD
For as good a season as Hasslebeck had in ’05, he was still only the sixth ranked fantasy QB. Going with the theory that his ’06 won’t measure up, be wary of taking Hasselbeck too early.

7) Donovan McNabb – Philadelphia Eagles – 2,507 yds, 16 TD, 9 INT, 1 rsh TD
I buy the same fantasy magazine every year (because I respect continuity whilst fearing change) and am always amused by the contradictions found pages apart. I’ve become convinced each position preview has different editors that never see the other’s work.
Case in point, Donovan's preview:

The loss of Terrell Owens will likely be addition by subtraction. Reggie Brown isn’t much of a drop-off, and the passing game will be more offensive without having to force so many passes to T.O.

A few pages later, at the wide receiver rankings, the man who isn’t much of a drop-off from Terrell Owens is ranked #51 (or, 48 spots behind T.O.)
It’s ridiculous to even suggest that Donovan won’t miss Owens. The best year of McNabb’s career, by far, was in Owens first year in uniform. Fantasy-wise, McNabb was always pretty solid even pre-T.O., but don’t expect the 3,900 yards and 31 TD that Donovan had back when he and T.O. used to mock the media by chasing each other down the sidelines. (Ah, how quaint and not-at-all juvenile that became with the benefit of hindsight.)

8) Trent Green – Kansas City Chiefs – 4,014 yds, 17 TD, 10 INT
Can somebody explain to me why Trent Green (the 4^th ranked fantasy QB in ’05) is listed no higher than #12 on every draft board I’ve seen? It seems that every year people sleep on Trent and every year he passes for more than 4,000 yards with a handful of TD.
And why is the departure of Al Saunders a big problem for Green (as has been mentioned in each of the previews I’ve read), but not for Larry Johnson? Whether you like it or not, the success of Johnson and Green are inextricably linked. If Green struggles, defenses will stuff the line and focus on LJ. If LJ struggles, it’s likely Green will be doing the same.
A vote for Larry Johnson is a vote for Trent Green. I’m not as high on LJ as most, but oddly, I’m higher on Green than almost all. Go figure.

9) Jake Delhomme – Carolina Panthers – 3,421 yds, 24 TD, 16 INT
Quick, besides Manning and Brady, which NFL QB has the most TD passes since 2003? If you didn’t guess Jake Delhomme, clearly the subtlety of my question placement escaped you.
The addition of Keyshawn Johnson can only help Delhomme, who should see his interception total drop because he won’t have to force the ball into a main target like he’s had to do in the past (Steve Smith in ’03 and ’05 and Muhsin Muhammad in ’04).

This is where the QB drop-off begins. If you're unable to get any of the top nine quarterbacks, don't rush to take the guys listed below. It's just not worth it. Functional fantasy starting quarterbacks can be found in the later rounds and early on in free agency.

10) Drew Bledsoe – Dallas Cowboys – 3,639 yds, 23 TD, 17 INT
Why does this whole Bledsoe/Tony Romo QB “controversy” seem like nothing more than an attempt by Bill Parcells to steer the conversation away from Terrell Owens’ practice habits? Don’t get me wrong, Bledsoe is an immobile stiff, but he still put up decent numbers in ’05 and should get better in ’06 with T.O. (right up until T.O. sells him out to the press, which will then force Bill Parcells to sit on him).
Tony Romo seems like an alright quarterback (but is a despicable person; not that I know anything about him except that he’s a scratch golfer, but that’s enough for me. It always pisses me off when somebody really good in one sport is also a scratch golfer. It just seems unfair. It’s like Bill Simmons being the greatest sportswriter on the planet and the best poker player. Give some other fellas a chance, huh guys!?!)

11) Michael Vick – Atlanta Falcons – 2,412 yds, 15 TD, 13 INT, 597 rsh yds, 6 TD
Why does nobody criticize Jim Mora Jr. and Greg Knapp for shackling Michael Vick within the confines of the west coast offense? Isn’t this a form of cruel and unusual punishment? And, one more thing, nice work by the correctional board in Virginia for putting a prison so close to Virginia Tech. That really makes it a really easy trip for the graduate assistants when they have to go bail all the Hokie football players out of jail in the middle of the night. It’s just considerate, that’s what it is.

12) Daunte Culpepper – Miami Dolphins – 1,564 yds, 6 TD, 12 INT, 147 rsh yds, 1 rsh TD
Daunte scares me. Not in the way Dakota Fanning does, but there’s still a legitimate fear working here. Why am I worried about a guy who is two seasons removed from throwing for 4,700 yards and 39 TD? And who’s joining a young, well-respected coach. And an All-Pro receiving candidate. And now he can finally look at receivers other than Randy Moss. Wait, on second thought, why isn’t Daunte atop this QB board? Oh right, the fright.
I don't why Daunte isn't higher. I have a feeling that the "Daunte in Miami" story isn’t going to have a happy ending. He’s never been known as the hardest worker, so maybe Nick Saban and he will have tension about that. Maybe he’ll bicker with the play calling if Ronnie Brown gets all the attention. Or maybe the prevalence of water in the Miami area will lead to one too many pleasure cruises. Who knows? But I have a feeling that something’s going to happen, and it won’t be good. Just a hunch.

Instead of going too deep into each position, I’m going to rank receivers and running backs from #1 and #24 and all other positions from #1 to #12 (enough to get a starter). After hitting up wide receivers tomorrow and tight ends/kickers on Thursday, I’ll make a list of sleepers and players to stay away from on Friday. That’s the day my sister has her first fantasy draft and I’m under strict orders to finish this all by then. She threatened to turn my niece into a Patriots fan if I don’t. Little did she know Alexa already knows who her favorite team is.

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 1
Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet - Running Backs

"The big three, the big three," that's all anybody can talk about headed into the 2006 fantasy season. By all accounts, there are only three players worth drafting this year and if you don't have one of the top picks you might as well just draft the entire Lions roster and call it a day.
But all this talk about there only being three greats confuses me. This isn't Yalta, people. There is plenty of talent beyond Danie, LJ and Shaun Alexander. And by plenty I mean in spots four through six. Because, in reality, the RBs this year go exactly six deep. After that is the precipitous drop-off that some people think starts at #4.
Each of the "Big Six" have huge question marks headed into the season though. It is with these question marks that we begin Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview Extravaganza (in alphabetical order):

Shaun Alexander
- Seahawks nearly assured of a post-Super Bowl malaise
- Lost offensive line stalwart Steve Hutchinson
- Recently signed big money, long-term deal

Tiki Barber
- Approaching dreaded 2,000 carry plateau
- At 31, is oldest of top six backs

Edgerrin James
- Approaching dreaded 2,000 carry plateau
- Leaves 14-2 Colts for Arizona Cardinals
- No, seriously, Kurt Warner is their quarterback

Larry Johnson
- First season as featured back
- Lost head coach and offensive coordinator in off-season
- Lead blocker and Hall of Famer Willie Roaf retired
- Has been accused of playing soft

Clinton Portis
- Popped out shoulder like Mel Gibson in Lethal Weapon 2
- Between Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle-El, Chris Cooley, Brandon Lloyd, Mike Sellers and Ladell Betts, Portis should carry ball less in 2006.

LaDainian Tomlinson
- Playing with new, young quarterback

Because of all these question marks, this is the first fantasy season I can remember where there isn’t a single drafting position I’d feel comfortable in. Picking #1 forces you to decide between the top three. Picking #2 takes away one of those selections, but leaves you with a coin flip. Picking #3 gives you little choice, unless you want to take a risk. Sitting at #4 is the riskiest position of the draft; players have a choice of about 15 backs that could either saunter to the top of RB rankings or pull a Domanick Davis. It’s more of the same at #5 and #6. And after that? Enjoy 52 yard afternoons from Willis McGahee.
The Big Six (in descending order, because it’s more fun that way):

6) Edgerrin James – Arizona Cardinals – 1,506 rush, 337 rec, 14 TD (2005 stats)
Oh, Edge, how I’ll miss you. For three straight years I’ve had Edgerrin in my 12-team league, but because I’m picking dead last in today’s draft, we won’t be making it four. (There’s still a chance I can grab Edge in my eight-team money league; I’ve had him two years running there.) While I seem a little nostalgic today, I’m not gonna lie: Even if I had the opportunity to draft Edge, I don’t know if I would.
There’s just too many things that can go wrong this year in Arizona. For starters, Kurt Warner isn’t going to last all 16 games, meaning Matt Leinart will be in at some point. I’m a big Leinart fan, but I also know simple math: Young QB + bad offensive line = David Carr.
Edgerrin is also surprisingly bad in short yardage situations. I can’t tell you the amount of times in the past three seasons that I’ve been yelling at the TV when Edge couldn’t get in from eight inches out.
Also, what if one of Edge’s dreadlocks gets caught in the gears when the Cards are moving their field indoors for the game? He's but a simple man from southern Florida. Fields moving in and out of doors on rollers might freak him out a bit.
Here’s another: He’s playing on the freakin’ Cardinals. Who was the last Cardinal running back to be an effective fantasy player? Ah-ha, it’s a trick question, suckers. Because the Arizona Cardinals have never had an effective fantasy back. Ever. If we conservatively estimate that fantasy football was popularized in the mid-‘90s, the best season for a Cards running back was by Adrian Murrell in 1998, when he gained 1,211 yards on the ground and through the air and got in the endzone 10 times. It says a lot that the second best season in that span was put up by what was left of Emmitt Smith.
Edgerrin has been my fantasy rock for three seasons. He completes me. He had me at “what’s crackin?” But he’s a risk in 2006. Oh, the reward will be high, but so, probably, will be Edge.

5) Clinton Portis – Washington Redskins – 1,518 rush, 216 rec, 11 TD
Before the shoulder injury, Portis could have been a top three running back this season. He still can, but it’s not worth the risk, especially on a runner like Clinton who attacks the line of scrimmage and takes a fair share of hits over the course of the season. Only the most naïve Redskins fan is expecting CP to be healthy for all 16 games this season, so you shouldn’t either. But that’s still no reason to take Steven Jackson before snagging Clinton.

4) Larry Johnson – Kansas City Chiefs – 1,750 rush, 343 rec, 21 TD

With Al Saunders and Dick Vermeil gone, the Chiefs will struggle and fantasy owners nationwide will rue the day they picked Larry Johnson #1.
- February 7, 2006

Larry Johnson will be the biggest fantasy bust of all-time. This has been a theory of mine seven months in the making, but its probability (no, that's not the right word) was heightened today by Willie Roaf's retirement. I'm telling you there haven't been this many red flags waving since Stalin marched in Red Square.
- July 28, 2006

It’s one month later, and the red flags are still whipping in the wind. Johnson is the #1 overall player for ESPN.com drafts and sits atop the draft boards of nearly half the guys who call themselves fantasy experts. And, frankly, it’s tough to argue with them. In LJ’s final nine games of 2006, he ran for a total of 1,351 yards and 17 TD. That’s 325 more yards and six more TD than LaMont Jordan had in the entire season (and he’s listed as high as #5 on some boards). So why so low for such a dominating player?
For every player that had question marks above, LJ’s are the biggest. The loss of both Al Saunders and Dick Vermeil totally changes the complexion of the Kansas City Chiefs. Herm Edwards is a defensive coach and the new offensive coordinator, Mike Solari, is an o-line guy. (He worked with Saunders for the better part of the last decade so some might say the transition will be made with ease; but let’s not forget that some coaches might be brilliant working with, say, an o-line but struggle when they get a promotion. The Redskins Joe Bugel is a prime example of this. And that’s no knock of Buges or Mike Solari, either. But some guys are just better in the trenches than they are in the booth.)
Roaf’s retirement also drastically changes the complexion of the Chiefs o-line. When the future Hall of Famer missed chunks of time in 2005 the running attack didn’t suffer greatly, but it forced Tony Gonzalez into blocking duty. With linebackers not focused on Gonzalez’s route running, they were able to stuff more men in the box to contend with Johnson and Holmes. That will happen again this year. Oh, and I didn't even mention Kyle Turley.
Larry Johnson will be one of the most productive fantasy players in 2006. And I wouldn’t have him on my team if you paid me.

3) Tiki Barber – New York Giants – 1,860 rush, 530 rec, 11 TD
On that same day in February when I began hating on Larry Johnson, I wrote that I thought Tiki Barber wouldn’t make it through the 2006 season. My rational was simple: Tiki hasn’t been hurt in four seasons and he’s due.
Consider: In the years 2002 through 2005, Tiki carried the ball 304, 278, 322 and 357 times, respectively. That’s a lot of hits to take, even for a young guy like LDT, but Tiki isn’t that young anymore. As a 31 running back he’s more Julio Franco than Julio Lugo and at some point he’s going to hit the wall that Curtis Martin slammed into last season.
Even so, Tiki gained nearly 2,400 yards and got in the endzone 11 times, amazing considering Tom Coughlin insisted on giving the no-talent, no-hands, no-game Brandon Jacobs all of Tiki’s goal line carries.
If Eli Manning improves at all (and, bite my tongue, he will), it could open up the line even more for Tiki and will lighten his load. I'm going to back-off my prediction of injury and instead put Tiki #3 on my board.

2) Shaun Alexander – Seattle Seahawks – 1,880 rush, 78 rec, 28 TD
Anybody who came to this site last football season knows I’m not the biggest fan of Shaun Alexander. I think he’s selfish, soft and sexy. (Sorry, I needed another “s” word to complete the alliterative trio.) And though he’s due for a huge fall-off from his stratospheric ’05 numbers, he’s still the safest pick in the draft.
This doesn’t mean there aren’t some things to worry about, though. As stated above; the loss of Steve Hutchinson will hurt, as will the inevitable post-Super Bowl funk the Seahawks will find themselves in. And don’t underestimate Alexander’s desire either. He was playing for a big contract last year and he got it in the off-season. Just like Edge and Larry, I think Shaun will have a fine year, but I wouldn’t want him on my team just in case.

1) LaDainian Tomlinson – San Diego Chargers – 1,462 rush, 370 rec, 20 TD, 3 pass TD
Of the consensus top three, LDT is the one I’d worry about least. For as much as I like Drew Brees, he’s still Drew Brees. Meaning, unless Philip Rivers is Ryan Leaf, Tomlinson shouldn’t experience too much of a drop off.
LJ might rush for more yards and Shaun might find the endzone, but LDT is a near lock for 1,900 yards, 18 TD and a few surprises. Take him with your top pick. He’s the safest selection in this draft.

After the top six the talent level drops off quicker than Tom Cruise’s career. We’re on the 9^th pick of my draft and I seriously have no clue what sort of dog I’m going to be stuck with at #12 and #13.

7) Ronnie Brown – Miami Dolphins – 907 rush, 232 rec, 5 TD
8) LaMont Jordan – Oakland Raiders – 1,025 rush, 563 rec, 11 TD
My cardinal rule of fantasy football (besides, don’t draft a Cardinal) is: Make sure your #1 running back is on a good team.
A #1 back has to be a consistent performer. The beauty of a guy like Edgerrin is that, even in his bad weeks, he’s still putting up a dozen or so points. The problem with backs like LaMont Jordan, Willis McGahee and Domanick Davis is that their teams are terrible and terrible teams usually are behind in the second half and have to throw the ball to catch back up, thus cutting into the RB’s carries and your points. Backs like this are fine when you have a solid guy to supplement the off-weeks. But, if you any of these cats are your #1, it could be a long season.
This is why I have Ronnie Brown ahead of LaMont Jordan on my draft board. Jordan had a nice season for a pathetic Raiders team in 2005 (the ex-Maryland RB was the 7^th best RB in traditional scoring leagues), thanks, in large part, to his receiving abilities. The Raiders, however, figure to be worse in 2006, thanks to the addition of Aaron Brooks, which will make Randy Moss even more unhappy than he already is and should throw the Raiders offense into quite the funk.
Brown’s Dolphins should continue the success they had in the second-half of 2005 and, by becoming the featured back in Ricky Williams’ absence, should be the main fantasy beneficiary. I was hoping Brown would fall to me with the 12^th pick in my draft, but he was gobbled up at #11. In a few minutes, you’ll see just how devastating that was. Seriously, I’m so depressed right now I can hardly write. My fantasy season, for all intents and purposes, is already over.

9) Rudi Johnson – Cincinnati Bengals – 1,458 rush, 90 rec, 12 TD
Rudi is a fairly consistent performer. He’s good for 1,400 yards, a dozen TD and about as many receiving yards as LaMont Jordan gets in a fortnight. His hands of stone keep him out of third down situations, which is the only negative, minus the fact that he spells his name with an “I”.

10) Steven Jackson – St. Louis Rams – 1,046 rush, 320 rec, 10 TD
Anybody else find it amusing that the same pundits who are saying Mike Martz’s departure from St. Louis will provide a boon to Steven Jackson’s numbers and the same people saying Mike Martz’s arrival in Detroit will do the same to Kevin Jones’ numbers.

11) Cadillac Williams – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1,178 rush, 81 rec, 5 TD
Cadillac might have the horsepower of his vehicular namesake, but he wears down quicker than a Soviet era Zaporozhets. Still, he’s going to get a lion’s share of the carries in Tampa and is an adequate #1 back.

After Caddy is where it gets tricky. It’s also where my season fell apart. Let me take you on a journey inside my mind. Please try to ignore the continuous loop of Beyonce’s Crazy In Love video.
Early on I eliminated the thought of taking Peyton Manning with one of my two picks, as Peyton has never finished an NFL season as the #1 ranked quarterback. (Yeah, it’s surprising, I know.) His consistency is great, but if I can get a QB like Jake Delhomme in the sixth round, I'll be thrilled.
I’m against taking a receiver so high, particularly if they tailed off in production at the end of last season (Steve Smith) or are named Terrell Owens (Terrell Owens). This left me with a choice of two running backs. But who?
I crossed Willie McGahee off the list early. He averaged 3.8 yards per carry on a disappointing Buffalo team in 2005 and only snuck into the endzone five times. Seeing as how the Bills best offensive upgrade of the off-season was replacing Eric Moulds with a guy that even the receiver-needy Atlanta Falcons didn’t want (Peerless Price), Buffalo and Willis figure to struggle in ’06 yet again. In a shaky position like mine, I couldn't afford to give Willis alpha-dog status. (Key stat: In a nine week stretch towards the end of last season, McGahee had only one game with more than 82 yards rushing. He had less than 55 in five of those contests.)
Brian Westbrook didn’t make the cut either because he’s more fragile than Vincent Libretti’s mental state (yes, that’s a Project Runway shout out. Shut up.)
I gave serious thought to Julius Jones; my thinking being that T.O. and Terry Glenn would open up the field for him, but even with Keyshawn drawing attention last year Jones couldn’t do much. I’d imagine he’s on a short leash with Bill Parcells also.
Domanick Davis looked enticing at #12, but he had his knee surgically repaired in the off-season and hasn’t practiced in three weeks.
Reuben Droughns caught my eye, but I then remembered Charlie Frye and thought to myself, who is that guy named Charlie Frye who caught my eye. Hov!
And, frankly, that’s it. Who else was I going to pick? There's nobody out there. I was stuck. It took me 23 minutes to make my pick (we have an e-mail draft) and it finally came down to Droughns and Davis and I (oh, I’m so ashamed of this) went with Domanick Davis, busted knee and all.
He had 1,313 total yards in just 10 games last season, so his upside was the highest. I took him over Droughns because Droughns rarely scores and plays for the Browns. And if Davis can get 1,300 yards in 10 games for the worst team in the league, just think of what he can do with the greatest player of all-time, Mario Williams, lined up on the other side of the ball. Seriously, I hate my team so much.
Because I was forced to take an injured bum like Domanick Davis (maybe I’ll write a column about how I just discovered fantasy football is all about luck and, even though I’m such a great player, the luck was against me by getting the 12^th pick. Yeah, that’ll make me feel better!) I figured I needed to make a splash with my next pick, #13. I couldn’t stomach having Davis and a guy like McGahee, Droughns or Jones, so I went out on a limb to open the second round. If I’m right, my season can be salvaged. If he ends up flaming out, I’ll miss the playoffs for the first time in my six years of fantasy. I'm usually a conservative player, but that's easy to do with a guy like Edgerrin James. With a low-pick in a top-heavy draft, one has to make adjustments on the fly. I had to take a risk. Which is why, with the 13th pick on the No More Klinedinst 2006 draft, Chris Chase selected Reggie Bush.

12) Domanick Davis – Houston Texans – 976 rush, 337 rec, 6 TD
13) Brian Westbrook – Philadelphia Eagles – 617 rush, 616 rec, 7 TD
14) Reggie Bush – New Orleans Saints – Rookie
15) Willis McGahee – Buffalo Bills – 1,247 rush, 178 rec, 5 TD
16) Reuben Droughns – Cleveland Browns – 1,232 rush, 369 rec, 2 TD
17) Julius Jones – Dallas Cowboys – 993 rush, 218 rec, 5 TD
18) Chester Taylor – Minnesota Vikings – 487 rush, 292 rec, 1 TD

It just dawned on me that my starting running backs are Domanick Davis and Reggie Bush. I long for the old days when people in my league would take Michael Vick in the first round and the Ravens D in the second. Oh, how I long for it. As it is, there haven’t been any bad picks in my draft yet. A few questionable ones (taking Edgerrin ahead of Tiki and Clinton Portis, for example and Reuben Droughns going before any WR), but nothing like there’s been in the past.
I’m going to call it quits for the day and curl up in a ball and weep, but come back tomorrow for the rest of my RB board and a rundown of either QBs or WRs. Pray for my team. Please.

Frank Beamer Will Be Offering Him A Scholarship Upon Capture

Tangible Proof That Bill Simmons Is A Loser

I've been eagerly awaiting an excuse-filled column from Bill Simmons explaining why he busted out two hours into the World Series of Poker and, today, he didn't disappoint.
According to Simmons, he was eliminated on a bad beat after playing a hand "perfectly". It took this incident to convince Simmons, a man who claims he knows all, that poker is a game of luck. To which I say, "No shit, high-voiced Sherlock."
After sending the link to Simmons' column to The Wolfman, he wrote back, "That article made me sick. I don't even want to talk about it. He's such a little bitch."
I had the same thoughts upon reading it, but I have to talk about. It would be a disservice to you, the procrastinating-from-work reader, not to. So, here goes.
Instead of writing a diatribe against the idiots who think playing poker takes skills beyond simple mathematical ability, I'm going to paste excerpts from Simmons' column and proceed to talk about why he's such an idiot.

I believed Mike McD for eight years. "People insist on calling it luck," he kept saying sarcastically. Sure. We all knew better.
If poker was about luck, as Mike says, the same guys wouldn't be sitting at the final table of the World Series every year, right?