Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 7
Preview Preview

The NFL season kicks off in just eight days and from now until then Chris's Sports Blog will continue to be your sixth-best option for online NFL previews behind ESPN.com, SI.com, Sportsline.com, NFL.com, Oprah.com and WWUJD.com.
A quick rundown of what lies in store for the next week:
Tomorrow: Questions from a Wolfman: NFL Preview Style
Friday: Revisiting the 2004 season (unless I think of something better)
Monday: The Chaz Rankings: Preseason
Tuesday: NFC Predictions
Wednesday: AFC Predictions
Thursday: Playoff Predictions/Pats-Raiders pick
Friday: Week 1 picks
I'm actually getting pretty excited for the Pats/Raiders game, even though I was less-than-thrilled when the NFL announced back in April that those two teams would open the season. (By the way, the Thursday opener was one of the best sports ideas in recent memory.) Randy Moss always comes up big in primetime, especially when he feels he has something to prove, so he's liable to go crazy against the two-time defending champs for 180 yards and three TDs.
Switching gears, there's been some great discussion on yesterday's comments section having to do with baseball, check it out if you're interested.
If you've been reading the paper or watching the news over the past few days, you've no doubt seen the utter devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina and don't need to read any more about it here. But I'm posting some links below if you're interested:
- Over at Instapundit, Glenn Reynolds has a list of places to donate to the relief effort.
- One of Chris's Sports Blog favorite players, Chris Duhon, grew up in Slidell, LA, one of the cities hit hardest by Katrina. His childhood home was destroyed, but his entire family is safe. Duhon's Stand Tall Foundation will be accepting food, money and clothing donations for Slidell's 25,000 residents, information on how to do so can be found here. With people in need, we won't hold Duhon's Dukieness against him.
- Sent to me by Tulane alum Zach Girod, this blog details the destruction of New Orleans through the eyes of a New Orleans native.
- Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is an asshole, and an uninformed one at that.
- Slate's Josh Levin writes about his "drowning hometown."

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 6
The Brady Myth

Tom Brady has won three Super Bowls, so he’s clearly better than Peyton Manning, or so says the popular theory of the day. Until Manning wins the “Big One” (or just defeats Brady’s Patriots, for that matter) he will never be able to hold a candle to the best quarterback in the NFL.
I like this logic. Let’s go with it for a while.
If Tom Brady is better than Peyton Manning because he has three rings, than Bob Griese is better than Manning also, because the former Dolphins QB has two Super Bowl wins to his credit. Ditto for Jim Plunkett.
And since rings are the determining factor of a quarterback’s worth, then Earl Morrall, Jim McMahon, Doug Williams, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson were all much better players than Peyton Manning since each of those QBs has one ring to Peyton’s none.
But, come to think of it, Peyton Manning has never even been to a Super Bowl, so that puts such legendary quarterbacks as Kerry Collins, Chris Chandler, Neil O’Donnell, Stan Humphries, Steve Grogan, David Woodley, Vince Ferragamo, Craig Morton and Joe Kapp way ahead of him on the list of all-time great QBs.
Yeah, this is indeed some good logic.
Now, Tom Brady might very well be a better quarterback than Peyton Manning, I don’t know. But if he is, it’s certainly not because the Patriots have won three Super Bowls while the Colts have won none.
When comparing Manning and Brady, fans of the Pats QB instantly recite the tired fact that Peyton has never beat their man head-to-head. And that’s true, if you believe that Manning and Brady are indeed playing against one another. I don’t.
Whenever the Colts offense is on the field, Tom Brady isn’t and vice-versa. Peyton Manning isn’t playing against Tom Brady any more than he’s playing against James Brady. Peyton and the Colts offense are facing-off against the Patriots defense the same way Brady is playing the Colts defense, not Manning.
When Roger Clemens faced Pedro Martinez in their epic duels when they were on the Yankees and Red Sox, respectively, nobody suggested that “Pedro can’t beat Clemens,” it was said that Pedro can’t beat the Yankees, which was correct. Pedro had no control over what Clemens did, the same way Brady has no control over what Manning does.
If you want to give somebody credit for beating Peyton Manning, give it to the Pats defense, not Tom Brady. Brady isn’t blitzing or dropping back into coverage. He doesn’t change his looks at the line of scrimmage or jump a slant. So why is Brady the one that gets credit for “beating” his QB counterpart? He has no influence over what his defense does on the field the same way Peyton isn’t responsible for the sieve that is the Indy defense.
Quarterbacks only have control over what happens when the ball is in their hands. All they can do is compete against their opponents defensive unit and hope they put up more points than their defense allows; that is all.
Going back to the baseball analogy, a pitcher has no say over what his team’s offense does. Roger Clemens would have nearly 20 wins this season instead of the measly 11 he has if his Astros didn’t get shut out in over one-third of his starts. Put Clemens on the Red Sox or Rangers and he’d likely have 22 or 23 wins. In the same vein, if Peyton Manning were on the Patriots he’d have just as many Super Bowl rings as Tom Brady. If Brady were in Indianapolis, he’d be Jake Delhomme.
I’m not trying to take anything away from Tom Brady; the Delhomme comment, which I’m serious about, notwithstanding. I like Delhomme – he is a reliable, consistent QB who rarely makes mistake, just like Brady. The difference is, Brady has a much better supporting cast.
This is not to say that any schmo could have won championships as the Pats QB. Far from it. Brady has been magnificent in the playoffs (even though he did fumble in the Snow Bowl, tuck rule be damned) and has earned each of his three rings. But to suggest that his quarterbacking skills (and that’s all I’m talking about here) are superior to Peyton Manning just because he plays for a better coached team with an infinitely better defense is as absurd as saying Jeff Francis (12-9, 5.86 ERA) is having a better season than Clemens (11-6, 1.51 ERA) simply because he has more wins.
In sports like football and baseball great players are looked down upon if they never win a championship. Ted Williams was vastly superior to Joe DiMaggio, but because DiMaggio was on a better Yankees team and won a handful of World Series, many incorrectly remember him as the greater player.
Dan Marino never won a Super Bowl despite having the best stats of any QB in history but doesn’t even factor in most discussions of the greatest quarterback of all-time because unlike Unitas, Bradshaw, Montana and Elway, Marino doesn’t have a ring.
History will be equally unkind to Manning unless his team’s defense improves.
As Peyton Manning has found out, football is a team game and if there s a weak link on a team, not even the best quarterback in the NFL can do anything about it.

Chris’s Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 5
Random Thoughts

- What happens to a player’s posse when they switch teams? Is Randy Moss going to bring his whole crew to Oakland, or will he be forced to re-form it? And what about Randy’s weed guy? Is he taken care of in Randy’s new contract (ie, “Randy’s dealer, Delicious McIntyre, will have a condo leased in Al Davis’ name with a refrigerator constantly stocked with 40’s of OE, Celeste Pizzas and Cheetos Paws”) or does Moss have to put a call in to Warren Sapp to get some new names? This is the stuff Outside the Lines needs to be covering.

- This is how bad it’s gotten for me: While watching CNN coverage of Hurricane Katrina yesterday and listening to the warnings about how New Orleans could be destroyed leaving tens of thousands homeless, I became worried about how the worst hurricane to hit the Gulf Coast in 50 years could adversely affect my fantasy team. You see, I have Aaron Brooks and Joe Horn on my squad and if the Superdome is damaged in the hurricane (early reports indicate that part of the roof has blown off), the Saints will likely be forced to play a home game or two (at the least) in another city, likely on a grass field, which could slow down New Orleans’ offense. And yes, I’m awaiting a phone call from Katie Couric so I can discuss my plight live on the Today show.

- Maurice Clarett, formerly of the Denver Broncos, passed up a $410,000 signing bonus earlier this year in favor of putting that money towards workout and incentive bonuses that would have paid the embattled running back up to $7 million over the next four years.
Clarett is to be cut by Denver this week, meaning he will not get any money.
Clarett passing up guaranteed money to get an incentive-based payout down the road is kind of like Rob Schneider forgoing a salary and instead taking points on Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo.

- Back to Katrina for a second; somehow, someway, I feel that John Clayton will find a way to blame this mess on Jim Haslett.

- The Bears made the right choice in naming Kyle Orton their starting quarterback. With Orton, Chicago is just nearly guaranteed to lose. With Chad Hutchinson, it wasn’t as much of a guarantee as it was a birthright.

- Not to knock on the Bears too much (boy, aren’t I going to look stupid when they beat the Redskins in 13 days) but with Kyle Orton and Cedric Benson starting this season, Chicago could really be a factor in the Big Ten.

- Speaking of the Redskins, Patrick Ramsey’s footwork is so bad that if he were on Dancing With The Stars there would be a three-pronged effect:
1) He’d lose to Evander Holyfield.
2) Patrick Swayze would openly weep at this and change his first name to Evander.
3) Evander Swayze would say, “Patrick Ramsey’s footwork is so bad he makes Elaine look like Ginger Rogers.”

- Seriously, here’s how bad Patrick Ramsey is: People in Washington are clamoring for Mark “63.9 QB rating” Brunell to become the Redskins starting quarterback. Jeez, why not just add Cristian Guzman to the roster and call it a day?

- By the way, did you happen to catch Bill Simmons’ plagiarized fantasy football cheat sheet from the other day?
I haven’t read Simmons regularly since the Patriots won their second Super Bowl back in 2004. I had always found him – what’s the word – supercilious, but during that Super Bowl week it was just too much. Every now and then I’ll go read some of his stuff, but when he started making me hate the Red Sox, I had to stop. It’s because of guys like him that BoSox fans are getting the bad rap that Yankees supporters have had for so long. But I digress.
Anyway, I was tipped off this weekend that Simmons’ fantasy football preview was quite similar to mine, from the Rudi Johnson/Rudy Huxtable throw-away line (although he incorrectly thought Rudy Huxtable spelled her name with an “I” – shoot, he even had me doubting myself… I had to go on IMDB just to make sure I was right) to the Walker/Horn/Holt/Johnson toss-up to the Curtis Martin/Rafael Palmeiro comparison. Granted, it’s not exactly groundbreaking thought he ripped off from me, but still, you don’t see me writing about how great Gymkata is.
OK, I don’t really think Simmons copied me, I just think he’s an overrated putz; funny at times, yes, but a putz nonetheless… Just like Jon Stewart.

- A comment from the always-reliable John Ake:

My beloved Browns are the only NFL team without a single player on any list. I'd hoped the niners wouldn't put anybody up either, but then you had to sneak Eric Johnson in as the lowest-rated TE. It's all good, haters -- I got a feeling this is gonna be Kellen Winslow's breakout year.
By the way, did anybody catch Ron Artest talking about his new album on ESPN Hollywood? It's gonna be the best thing to happen to music since the 25-minute R. Kelly song.

I apologize for the lack of Browns love; I really wanted to put Bernie Koser on the quarterback’s list but I’d be lying if I said I had faith in – wow, I can’t think of who the Browns’ head coach is. It can’t still be Butch Davis, can it? No, I feel like he was fired last season. Didn’t Terry Robiskie take over at the end of the year again like he did in Washington back in the day? Damn, who’s the coach? I really don’t want to have to go look this up. It would be like the time I was in college and couldn’t remember who was coaching the Bullets. Although at that point when I eventually looked it up and found out it was Gar Heard (in his first season on the bench), I was a little relieved because I think at times even Gar Heard didn’t know he was coaching the Bullets. OK, I’m going to hunker down and figure this out. I keep thinking of Chris Palmer, but he was the expansion team’s first coach, so that’s certainly not it. Maybe Butch Davis is still there; but how could he be, the Browns have been awful the past two seasons. No, they have to have a new coach, I distinctly remember Robiskie coaching the last few games in 2004. Alright, this is getting ridiculous and I won’t subject you to it any longer. I’m biting the bullet and looking it up. (Checking) Ahhh, ROMEO CRENNEL! Wow, I wasn’t even close to coming up with that. Man, I’m slipping, what’s next, forgetting what Theo raps to Stevie Wonder in that Cosby Show where Denise gets in a car accident with Stevie’s limo and, as a goodwill gesture, Wonder invites them down to the studio where he makes a song consisting of Rudy making giraffe sounds, Vanessa saying “Robert”, Denise vapidly declaring “I don’t know what to say” and Theo, in a moment that no doubt inspired rappers worldwide, telling Stevie that if he were at a party he’d rap “Jammin’ on the one!” Man, that’s great stuff.
Anyway, Mr. Ake, at least your Indians are looking good. The entire free world is hoping they, or the A’s, can outlast the Yankees in the A.L. Wild Card race (even though I still think the Yanks will take the East, but that’s a matter for another day.)
As for your question about Ron Artest; no, I didn’t see him talking about his new album, but if it was just one-tenth as amazing as his post-brawl interview on the Today show when Artest deflected all of Matt Lauer’s questions by discussing the new record by “my girls Allure”, then I’m sure I missed an instant classic.
By the way, speaking of amazing, did you happen to see R. Kelly’s “performance” of “Trapped in the Closet” last night on the MTV Awards? It was kind of like seeing Wedding Crashers for the first time; I couldn’t decide which part was the best.
Was it R. Kelly singing a ridiculous song that nobody paid attention to when it was originally released? Or Puffy breathlessly hyping the performance and the “hotly anticipated” surprise ending. (Hey Puff, The sixth-part to “Trapped in the Closet” is about as hotly anticipated as a new Vanilla Ice album.) Or maybe the best part was R. Kelly not even trying to hide the fact that he was lip synching?
The tops would have been the reaction shots of Usher, Snoop and the other artists in the audience, but MTV wisely didn’t show them because everyone was either out getting nachos at the concession stand or stifling laughter at the ridiculousness of R. Kelly thinking that people actually cared whether the cheating husband got back together with his wife who was cheating with the cop who stopped the gay guy who was cheating with the husband of the wife that the original cheating was done with.
I read a rumor that as a follow-up to “Trapped” Kelly is going to sing the 1987 Guinness Book of World Records and release it chapter-by-chapter.

- A guy in one of my fantasy leagues didn’t draft a kicker. Just didn’t draft one. I think it was his way of saying that kickers are worthless, but that still doesn’t change the fact that eventually you need a freakin’ kicker. If this wasn’t a money league, I’d have half-a-mind to cut my entire team and take the rest of the kickers in the league out of spite so this fool wouldn’t be able to put a kicker on his roster, but then I figured doing that, together with my aforementioned misplaced hurricane concern, would make me cross the line that I am so delicately tip-toeing anyway.

- My brother-in-law in a Patriots fan and, in the past, I haven’t really been able to talk a whole lot of smack to him, what with the three Super Bowls in the past four years. (Although I did mention in my toast at last September’s wedding that the Patriots last loss (at the time) was to the Redskins… Yeah, who am I kidding. It was long ago I crossed that line I was just talking about.)
But when he drunkenly texted me Friday night during the Redskins-Steelers preseason game about how bad the Redskins were going to be this season, I was able to respond with “At least our quarterback doesn’t take sleeveless pictures with baby goats.”
When I got no text I return, I knew I had struck comeback gold.

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 4
Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Tight Ends

1) Tony Gonzalez – Kansas City Chiefs - 102 rec, 1,258 yds, 7 TD
2) Antonio Gates – San Diego Chargers - 81 rec, 964 yds, 13 TD
There’s a good analogy to be had here, but it’s early and I’m only on my first cup of coffee, so bear with me.
Gates is atop many a drafter’s board, and with good reason. His breakout 2004 was the best fantasy year for a TE since Gonzalez established himself as the NFL’s preeminent pass-catching TE in 1999.
Since then, Gonzalez has been firmly entrenched as the best TE, on the field and in fantasy, in the league, despite challenges every season from an up-and-coming player like Bubba Franks, Jeremy Shockey or Todd Heap. But those players have battled inconsistency and injuries and have yet to displace Gonzalez from his perch as many expect Gates to do this season.
Will he though?
When you break it down, there isn’t much difference between Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez. Both play in the AFC West, both excelled on the basketball court in college and, in the rookie season, both had remarkably similar stats:
Gonzalez 368 yards 2 TD
Gates 389 yards 2 TD
Gates is younger, and thus is thought to have more “upside”, but it’s tough to imagine him snaring any more TDs in 2005 than he did last season.
His six TD cushion over the elder Gonzalez last year was nearly negated by Tony’s 294 yard lead in receiving yards. If you accept the notion that touchdown totals are more fluky than receptions and yardage (which I do), Gonzalez’s 21 more catches and almost 300 more yards receiving suggest he is the better choice this season.
Factor in Gates’ baffling one-game suspension to start the year and, to me, Gonzalez becomes the #1 tight end in fantasy. But, much like Coke or Pepsi, paper or plastic, Letterman or Leno and Kelly Clarkson or Hillary Duff, it really comes down to personal preference.
Some folks are Antonio people, others go for Tony. Personally, I like Tony… and Kelly Clarkson. But hey, if you like Antonio Gates better, more power to you. And if you like Hillary Duff better than my girl Kelly, well, then you’re just pathetic.

3) Alge Crumpler – Atlanta Falcons - 48 rec, 774 yds, 6 TD
If you don’t get Gonzalez or Gates, there’s no reason to select a tight end before the 11th or 12th round of your draft. Yet after they’re both off the board, there will be a mini-run in your draft because people are going to get scared that they won’t be able to get a solid TE for their team.
The problem is, after the top two TEs, there’s not much difference between the next ten. Alge Crumpler was the 4th rated TE last season (Jason Witten was 3rd, I’ll get to him in a minute) and scored 108 points in traditional fantasy leagues. Dallas Clark was 11th, finishing with 70 points, a difference of 38, or a little less than 2.5 points per game. That’s not much. Head-to-head, Clark managed to outscore Crumpler in seven of the season’s 16 games.
Compare that to the 4th and 11th running backs (Curtis Martin and Clinton Portis, respectively) who were separated by 75 fantasy points (over 4.5 ppg) and only had one game where the lower ranked player (Portis) outscored the higher ranked player (Martin) – they tied once.
That was a lot of words to explain something that can summed up in four: Tight ends don’t matter.
They’re impossible to predict, they have too many games where they’ll score three points and the difference between most is negligible.
I have Crumpler rated 3rd because he’s one of the only targets Michael Vick will have, a trait that seems to be a theme of the next few TEs listed.

4) Todd Heap – Baltimore Ravens - 27 rec, 303 yds, 3 TD
Heap played in only six games in 2004, but was effective while on the field. The addition of Derrick Mason to the Ravens means defenses can’t clamp down on Heap, like they’ve done in the past.
Like last year, injuries throw up a red flag with Heap, but his upside is worth the risk.

5) Jason Witten – Dallas Cowboys - 87 rec, 980 yds, 6 TD
Q: What do Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn and Quincy Morgan all have in common?
A: They’re all ranked lower than T.J. Houshmandzadeh and, presumably, Alvin Harper on everybody’s draft board.
With Julius Jones expected to carry the load for Bill Parcells, look for Witten’s numbers to drop this season, particularly in the red zone. When Eddie George started Dallas’ first nine games last year, Witten averaged ten fantasy points per. After Jones entered the lineup in week ten, Witten’s per-game average dropped to 5.3.
Before Julius: 5 TD. After Julius: 1 TD. It’s Julius’ world, and Witten’s just a squirrel tryin’ to get a nut.
By the way, I’ve now written “Julius” so much that the name has lost all meaning.

6) Jeremy Shockey – New York Giants - 61 rec, 666 yds, 6 TD
Jeremy Shockey is more overrated than The Daily Show. And his 2004 numbers seem to indicate he has some sort of love for the Devil.

7) Randy McMichael – Miami Dolphins - 73 rec, 791 yds, 4 TD
One more thing about Shockey (because, really, do you want me to write some BS about how McMichael will thrive this season in Nick Saban’s new offense? Or how Gus Frerotte and him have established a good rapport in training camp and this might mean additional red zone catches? I mean, everything I’ve written this week has been BS to some degree, but at least most of it has been grounded in statistical reason and solid opinion. To rank tight ends, I might as well just go down to the National Zoo and let the chimps pick. Anybody who claims they know which tight end will be the 7th best in the NFL deserves to be hit in the chest and the throat, but I digress.) What was I talking about… Oh, right, Shockey.
Jeremy Shockey has as many touchdown receptions in his career as Antonio Gates did last November and December. Shockey has probably dropped more touchdown catches than he has caught. He’s really not a good player at all; he gets blown up by linebackers, holes collapse around him like he’s Baby Jessica and he has such bad hands that even Darrell Jackson makes fun of him. Shockey is the Michael Vick of tight ends, except that Vick has talent he has yet to harness, while Shockey has hair that makes him look like a roadie for Metallica.

8) Dallas Clark – Indianapolis Colts - 25 rec, 423 yds, 5 TD
The Colts team doctor will probably catch three touchdown passes from Peyton Manning this season, so you’ve gotta figure Clark’s good for at least four or five.

9) Jermaine Wiggins – Minnesota Vikings - 71 rec, 705 yds, 4 TD
Reason #81 why fantasy football magazines, like men in masks, cannot be trusted:
An excerpt from a fantasy magazine’s analysis of Jermaine Wiggins: “Only four TEs with 30+ receptions had a lower yards-per-catch average last year. Because of this, he [Wiggins] could lose time to the Jim Kleinsasser.”
Forgetting about the grammatical mistake at the paragraph’s close (“the Jim Kleinsasser?” He sounds like a wrestler), anyone reading that blurb would assume that Wiggins isn’t worth the pick because of his low YPC.
Unfortunately, what the magazine fails to tell you is that only 16 tight-ends had more than 30 catches last season, meaning Wiggins was just 11th out of 16 in YPC, which isn’t terrible. Plus, why does it even matter that Wiggins’ YPC is low? So what? If he was catching 30 balls a year, then it might be an issue. But when you have 71 catches as a tight end, a low YPC is insignificant. Wiggins had the 7th most receiving yards of any TE, which is infinitely more important than having the 5th worst YPC. Fantasy leagues don’t care about YPC, they care about yards, period.
These fantasy magazines are more concerned with saying something, anything, then they are with pertinent facts. This is why they, like the French, cannot be trusted.

10) CENSORED - Will fill-in after player gets drafted in my league

11) CENSORED - Hopefully, by my team… for one of them, anyway

12) Eric Johnson – San Francisco 49ers - 82 rec, 825 yds, 2 TD
Eric Johnson had two touchdowns catches in 2004, the same number that Jeremy Shockey had in both 2002 and 2003. At this rate, I fully expect an “Eric Johnson: Beyond the Glory” and a spread in Maxim any day now.

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 3
Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Quarterbacks

1) Peyton Manning – Indianapolis Colts - 4,557 yds, 49 TD, 10 INT (2004 stats)
Peyton Manning’s 2004 season reminded me of the Duke-Kentucky Regional Final from 1992 (the Laettner shot) in that it was so unbelievable that it might be a few years before we can fully appreciate just how wonderful it really was.
Consider:
- Since Dan Marino threw 48 TD in 1984, the closest any QB came to the record was in 2000 when Kurt Warner threw 41. (In researching that stat I discovered Jim Everett led the NFL in TD passes in 1989, which would be like finding out Cristian Guzman once won the A.L. batting title.)
- Manning didn’t even play week 17 against Denver, meaning a 50 TD season was a near certainty.
- He threw 49 TD passes against only 10 INT. 49 and 10. That’s like the score of the Oklahoma-Baylor game, not someone’s TD to INT ratio.
- Three of Manning’s receivers had over 1,000 yards and 10 TD in 2004. Manning’s brother’s team, the New York Giants, hasn’t had one receiver do that in a single-season since 1967.
It’s absurd to think that Peyton could put together another season like that, but then again, it was absurd to think that he could put together a season like that in the first place. Peyton is the best QB in the league both on the field and in fantasy. He’s the most reliable player in the game and is worth a high pick.

2) Daunte Culpepper – Minnesota Vikings - 4,717 yds, 39 TD, 11 INT, 406 rsh, 2 TD
For those of you worried that the departure of Randy Moss will hinder Daunte Culpepper’s fantasy performance, don’t.
In the five games Moss missed last season, Daunte threw for 9 TD against only 2 INT and completed a higher percentage of passes than he did with Moss in the lineup.
Clearly, Daunte’s numbers won’t be as stellar with Nate Burleson and Marcus Robinson lining up, but he’s still one of those rare fantasy players who can carry a team each and every week.
Pick him sometime after Peyton and the top five or six backs and enjoy his 25 points per week.

3) Donovan McNabb – Philadelphia Eagles - 3,875 yds, 31 TD, 8 INT, 220 rsh, 3 TD

I’m just tryin’ to say, the way school needs teachers,
the way Kathy Lee needed Regis, that’s the way I need Jesus.
- Kanye West, “Jesus Walks”

If Kanye was Puffy and remade his own songs a few years after releasing them (who else can’t wait for Puffy to drop “Bad Boy 4 Life 2006 (We Ain’t Goin Nowhere)”), then he could add Donovan needing T.O. as another example of co-dependent relationships.
In the four seasons before Owens arrived in Philly, McNabb averaged 19 TD and 10 INT. Last season, McNabb threw 31 TD and only 8 picks, a huge improvement that was due mainly to Owens’ presence. (McNabb also grew more patient in the pocket in 2004.)
Even with all the Owens-created drama, it seems quite likely he’ll play the full-season in Philly and there’s no reason to think McNabb’s numbers will be much different from last season, which would easily rank him as the 3rd best fantasy QB.

4) Trent Green – Kansas City Chiefs - 4,591 yds, 27 TD, 17 INT
The top-tier of quarterbacks is the smallest of any of the three major positions. After McNabb, it gets a little dicey when selecting a QB. If McNabb is a mid-2nd rounder (I’d still choose a 2nd RB before taking Donovan though), then the next few signal callers are 4th and 5th round selections, at best.
Don’t waste a pick on one of these guys if a good back is still available. The difference between the 12th best running back and the 20th best running back is a lot greater than the difference between the 4th best QB and the 12th best QB. Remember, RBs are the life-blood of fantasy. Any schmo quarterback can put up big stats… just look at Jake Plummer’s 2004.
Of all the second-tier guys, I like Green the best. He always puts up huge numbers in Kansas City despite having one of the worst receiving corps in the game. He’s consistently near 4,00 yards and always tosses 25 TD and half as many INT.
The double-teaming of Tony Gonzalez is troubling, since Green has no other weapons, but with a healthy Priest Holmes to draw attention, Trent will have another solid fantasy season.

5) Marc Bulger – St. Louis Rams - 3,964 yds, 21 TD, 14 INT, 3 rsh TD
Bulger missed three games last season, which is why, along with a sagging St. Louis rushing attack, his numbers might seem a bit pedestrian.
With Steven Jackson firmly entrenched as the starting back and Marshall Faulk relegated to backup status, Bulger should see an increase in his TD passes, making him a solid choice to run your fantasy team.

6) Tom Brady – New England Patriots - 3,692 yds, 28 TD, 14 INT
Somehow, the second-tier of QBs was even smaller than the top-tier. After Green and Bulger there is a group of seven quarterbacks, of varying actual-skill level, that are quite similar for fantasy purposes.
The next seven guys are pretty much interchangeable, and like the mid-tier receivers from yesterday, are not worth gambling on. Don’t be the first to draft one of these quarterbacks; use your picks for a 3rd RB or 2nd WR instead. Since there’s no way to guess whether Tom Brady or Aaron Brooks will be a better fantasy quarterback this season; why even bother, wait for others to make the decision for you.
Keep an eye on which owners in your draft already have QBs and then, when it’s your pick, figure out how many QBs are likely to be selected the next time it’s your turn.
For instance; if it’s the 5th round and you’re thinking it’s time for a quarterback but you can’t decide between Aaron Brooks, Brett Favre and Kerry Collins, look at the current rosters of each team drafting after you. If you can determine that only two of them are likely to take a QB by the time it’s your pick again, take a 3rd RB and then when it gets back to you, your decision will be made. Many times you’ll still have a choice of two because most fantasy owners are idiots.
If you just have to pick a QB before anyone else, Brady is the guy I’d choose above any of the middle-tier throwers, mainly because he’s the best quarterback of the group on the best team. Sure, he might not be the best fantasy guy, but wouldn’t you rather have a cool, calm, collected QB like Tom Brady in your starting lineup as opposed to a headcase like…

7) Aaron Brooks – New Orleans Saints - 3,810 yds, 21 TD, 16 INT, 4 rsh TD
Aaron Brooks is so spazzy he makes Crispin Glover look calm. Between him and Jake Plummer, they make Britney Spears’ decision-making ability look prudent.
Still, Brooks is surprisingly consistent in fantasy; he didn’t have a single-game with under ten fantasy points in 2004. It doesn’t really affect you if he throws a screen-pass while under a heavy blitz in his own endzone late in the game while up by seven points, that’s for Jim Haslett to worry about.
Brooks won’t have too many bad fantasy outputs, a key for a starting QB.

8) Brett Favre – Green Bay Packers - 4,088 yds, 30 TD, 17 INT
Favre will get his yardage and throw a bunch of touchdown passes, but I think this is the year where the public finally starts to realize that Favre tries to do too much and ends up hurting the Packers because of it. Some of his interceptions make Jake Plummer laugh.
This could be the first season where Favre throws more picks than touchdowns. Watch it happen.

9) Kerry Collins – Oakland Raiders - 3,495 yds, 21 TD, 20 INT
If and old and decrepit Randall Cunningham can throw 27 passes to Randy Moss, you have to figure Kerry Collins is good for at least 28. Maybe I’m giving Kerry Collins too much credit though. I don’t know, I still wouldn’t want him as my starting QB, Moss be damned.

10) Matt Hasselbeck – Seattle Seahawks - 3,382 yds, 22 TD, 15 INT
In his quest to have the best season by a bald quarterback since Y.A. Tittle, Matt Hasselbeck was sabotaged by his miserable receivers in ‘04. Things don’t figure to be much better this year, what with Koren Robinson drying out and all. Plus, Shaun Alexander is in another contract year and you know that selfish Alabaman will be all about getting in the endzone himself.

11) Michael Vick – Atlanta Falcons - 2,313 yds, 14 TD, 12 INT, 902 rsh yds, 3 TD
Of all the popular urban legends, the one about Michael Vick being a good fantasy football player is the most absurd.
Vick has never thrown for more than 16 touchdowns in a season, has an almost 1:1 TD to INT ratio, had less passing yards in 2004 than Kyle Boller, scored the same amount of rushing touchdowns last season as Marc Bulger and, in his 15 2004 starts, scored 11 fantasy points or less in more than half of them (8), the same number as Marc Bulger (0), Aaron Brooks (1), Tom Brady (2), Jake Delhomme (2) and Matt Hasselbeck (3) combined.
At this point in his career Vick is not a good passing quarterback; he’s mediocre, at best. Yet in many leagues, he’ll be the fourth quarterback selected because of his potential; potential he has yet to come close to fulfilling (beyond his “did-you-see-that” scrambles).
Maybe 2005, Vick’s second operating the west coast offense, will be the season he finally lives up to his hype. But you shouldn’t be willing to risk your fantasy season on it.

12) Jake Delhomme – Carolina Panthers - 3,886 yds, 29 TD, 15 INT
With Stephan Davis and DeShaun Foster sidelined for much of the 2004 season, the Panthers became a passing team; hence Delhomme’s and Muhsin Muhammad’s huge numbers.
With Muhammad in Chicago and the running attack back on track, Delhomme figures to experience a slight drop across the board. He’ll be a solid backup in any league, but shouldn’t be considered a starter.

13) Carson Palmer – Cincinnati Bengals - 2,897 yds, 18 TD, 18 INT
Draft Palmer as a backup, particularly if you have a guy like Delhomme or Hasselbeck as your starter. After a pretty good first year behind center, Palmer should up his TDs and lower his INTs and could be in your starting lineup on weeks against soft defenses. And if Palmer doesn’t show any improvement, it doesn’t really matter to you, he was just your backup anyway.

14) Byron Leftwich – Jacksonville Jaguars - 2,941 yds, 15 TD, 10 INT
I had a bad draft last season and was stuck with Byron Leftwich as my starting quarterback. He mixed in brilliant games with Ryan Leaf-esque performances and became so erratic that I actually inserted Vinny Testaverde into my lineup during one stretch in November. I’d rather not talk about it.
On another team Leftwich could be a star, but without any weapons in Jacksonville he should only be considered a competent fantasy backup.

15) Jake Plummer – Denver Broncos - 4,089 yds, 27 TD, 20 INT
Plummer’s value as a fantasy player peaked last year, as Denver struggled with their run-game (for them, at least) which forced Mike Shanahan to air it out with the overrated ex-Arizona State QB.
If the combination of Tatum Bell, Mike Anderson and Quentin Griffin can get the Broncos ground-attack back into form, Plummer won’t be throwing up 521 passes and will be closer to 3,000 yards than 4,000.
He’ll be a capable backup, but for the time being, should be nothing more than that.

16) Chad Pennington – New York Jets - 2,673 yds, 16 TD, 9 INT
Word out of Jersey is that Chad Pennington’s shoulder looks good and the zip his returned to his passes. That is good news for Jets fans and good news for fantasy owners that draft Pennington as their backup, but could very well be using him as their starter by season’s end.

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 2
Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Wide Receivers

1) Randy Moss – Oakland Raiders - 49 rec, 1,113 yds, 9 TD
Glitter, glisten, gloss, floss, the #1 wideout is Randy Moss.
I know, I know… You’re worried that if he stops smoking weed he’ll go all Chappelle on us and move to South Africa to get away from Charlie Murphy, but I can say with some certainty that there’s no imminent threat of that happening. For, you see, Randy smokes “once in a blue moon”, whereas Chappelle once starred in a movie that explained how to make a smoking device out of an avocado, an ice pick and my snorkel.
Moss retains his status as the #1 receiver in fantasy football even though his new coach is Norv Turner, who has killed more careers than Ben Affleck.
And don’t worry about the switch from Daunte Culpepper to Kerry Collins. Remember that Randy once caught 17 touchdowns in a season from Randall Cunningham.

2) Terrell Owens – Philadelphia Eagles - 77 rec, 1,200 yds, 14 TD
It’s been said that drafting the petulant Owens is a risk. And, to some degree, I suppose it is; if you’re idea of risk-taking is driving alone in the HOV lane.
The following things are incontrovertible facts:
1) Terrell Owens is a disruptive jackass.
2) More than anything, Terrell Owens wants money.
3) If Terrell Owens doesn’t play, Terrell Owens gets no money.
4) The Eagles next-best receiver is Greg Lewis.
5) Even Greg Lewis’ mother admits Greg Lewis makes Todd Pinkston look like Harold Carmichael.
6) Without Terrell Owens, Brian Westbrook will have an Eddie George-esque yards-per-carry because defenses will put 47 men in the box because Greg Lewis is about as threatening as a kitten.
7) Andy Reid hates Terrell Owens.
8) Andy Reid hates losing more.
9) Andy Reid will figure out a way to make it work with Terrell Owens due to his intense hatred of losing.
10) Despite all outward appearances, deep down, Donovan McNabb knows he can’t win without Terrell Owens.
These 10 facts make Terrell Owens a fairly safe bet. Sure, there’ll be about eight midweek Sportscenters leading-off with T.O.’s antics and Sean Salisbury and John Clayton will argue about whether he’s detrimental to the team on every odd-numbered day, but T.O. needs the Eagles and the Eagles need T.O. He’s a huge distraction, but unless the Eagles somehow fall out of the playoff picture late in the season (don’t count on it), Terrell Owens will be with the team come January, unless he punches a coach or teammate and/or starts eating Progresso soup.

3) Chad Johnson – Cincinnati Bengals - 95 rec, 1,274 yds, 9 TD
Last year was Carson Palmer’s first year as a starting quarterback and Chad Johnson put up huge numbers anyway. The mere possibility of an improved Palmer makes Johnson a sure-bet to become a top-three fantasy receiver yet again.

4) Marvin Harrison – Indianapolis Colts - 86 rec, 1,113 yds, 15 TD
Harrison is the General Electric of NFL wide receivers. Wal-Mart and Amazon make more headlines, Microsoft gets the cover of Fortune and Google stock trades for eight-times its value, but overlooked GE is the gold-standard of American companies, much like Harrison is the NFL’s forgotten superstar.
Last year, Harrison put up his worst receiving numbers since 1998, yet still was the 7th ranked wideout in fantasy.
Even with Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley setting career-highs in every receiving category, Harrison still put up solid numbers.
He ranks #4 because there are enough games where he doesn’t produce (through no fault of his own); in seven 2004 games he had less than 50 yards receiving.
But that’s a minor quibble and Harrison is the rare receiver that you can feel comfortable with in the lineup every week.

5) Torry Holt – St. Louis Rams - 94 rec, 1,372 yds, 10 TD
Since his rookie year, Holt has been a top-five receiver. There’s no reason to think that will change this season.

6a) Joe Horn – New Orleans Saints - 94 rec, 1,399 yds, 11 TD
6b) Javon Walker – Green Bay Packers - 89, 1,382 yds, 12 TD
I had to make the Joe Horn/Javon Walker decision in my 12-team draft, and it was the toughest decision I had to make since I was at Popeye’s last Saturday and had to choose between fries and red beans and rice as my side. I ended up choosing both, a luxury I sadly didn’t have with Horn and Walker.
In the end, I went with Joe Horn because he has proven himself over the past three seasons, whereas Walker is more of an unknown commodity.
How he will deal with being the top-dog in Green Bay? Was last season a fluke? Will Donald Driver steal some catches? Why was Javon so inconsistent last year? Does he thrive against weak corners, but struggle when matched-up with stars?
My final decision became clear when I discovered the following stat: Using traditional scoring, Joe Horn had 12 double-digit games in 2004 versus ten for Javon Walker. That might not seem like much, but like I said, I was looking for any edge one receiver might have over the other.
Horn and Walker are solid picks, but I like Horn just a little better.

8) Andre Johnson – Houston Texans - 79 rec, 1,142 yds, 8 TD
After Horn and Walker there is a serious drop-off in receiving talent.
This is not to say that any of the remaining wideouts aren’t capable of exploding for a huge 2005, because they are. But the top seven WRs are proven talents and you can feel comfortable with any of them in your starting lineup. The next 17 guys are a crapshoot. They’ll be inconsistent and likely cause you headaches all year. There’s a good chance you’ll get sick of one of these players putting up five-point games and bench them the week they blow-up for 39 (as I did with Javon Walker last season). But that’s why receivers are the toughest position to draft. In no way am I confident with my rankings of the #8-#24 players, but I’ll try to explain why I put each receiver where I did.
Andre Johnson could very well be considered a top-tier receiver next year. The athletic third-year pro will likely struggle this season against opponents with stacked secondaries because Jabar Gaffney and Corey Bradford don’t require much attention, freeing defensive coordinators to double-up Johnson up.
David Carr is coming around and if Domanick Davis can establish anything on the ground, Johnson could have the big year his fantasy owners are waiting for.

9) Reggie Wayne – Indianapolis Colts - 77 rec, 1,210 yds, 12 TD
After drafting Wayne in each of his first three seasons and cutting him by week seven every time, I told myself at the end of 2003 that I was never going to take him again.
Luckily I have two big things going for me: My lack of any sort of long-term memory and a penchant for breaking promises, both of which allowed me to forget about my vow and draft Reggie again last year.
When he finally put up the numbers I knew he had in him, I was as proud as a father after his son’s first minor brush with the law. My Reggie had finally become a man.
It’s unlikely he’ll go for 1,200 yards and 12 TD again and, like Marvin Harrison, he mixes in a lot of bad games with his huge ones, but anytime your receiver is catching balls from Peyton Manning, he’s worth putting in the starting lineup.

10) Hines Ward – Pittsburgh Steelers - 80 rec, 1,004 yds, 4 TD
Picking Hines Ward is like driving a Volvo. It’s not flashy, it’s certainly not sexy, but you know you’ll be safe. Don’t pick Hines as your top WR though; he’s the quintessential #2 man.

11) Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals - 58 rec, 780 yds, 8 TD
Every three years pro football writers take a trip down to Tempe in August to write a story on how this year will be different for the Arizona Cardinals.
It started in 1996 when new coach Vince Tobin was supposed to lead the Cards to their first playoff win in decades with old pro Boomer Esiason at quarterback. But, the only thing that team did was keep a Redskins squad that started 7-1 out of the playoffs thanks to a season-sweep, both games being decided in the final minutes (including an unbelievable 37-34 win in the Cards last visit to RFK, thanks to 522 passing yards by Boomer).
In 1999 the Cards were fresh-off their first playoff win in over 30 years, but sagged to a 6-10 record.
Three years ago Jake Plummer was in the final throes of Michael Westbrook Syndrome, but that didn’t matter to the media, many of whom picked the Cards to win the NFC East. They went 5-11.
It’s now 2005 and the same reporters are writing the same stories about how this year will be different for the Cardinals.
And, dammit, I’m buying it again.
I think Larry Fitzgerald is going to have a breakout year. I know he doesn’t run crisp routes and I know he was so great in college because he was leaping over losers from Rutgers and Temple, but I don’t care. I’m taking a chance on Fitzy and I think you should to. Draft him as a #2 receiver, but be sure to get a back-up soon after, just in case.

12) Jerry Porter – Oakland Raiders - 64 rec, 998 yds, 9 TD
Glitter, glisten, gloss, floss, other teams focus on Randy Moss… Leaving Jerry Porter to put up 1,200 yards and 11 TD.

13) Darrell Jackson – Seattle Seahawks - 87 rec, 1,077 yds, 10 TD
This is the first time in a while I can remember Darrell Jackson not being on my fantasy team, and I’m not upset about it. Having D-Jack on your squad is like season four of The Sopranos. You have high hopes that are muted by a disappointing first few games/episodes. You keep thinking that it’s all leading to something big, only to discover that at the end of the season it was just one big tease.

14) Donald Driver – Green Bay Packers - 84 rec, 1,208 yds, 9 TD
Wow, how quietly did Driver put up those numbers last year in Green Bay? I thought Donald move to the Packers retirement home and was rooming with Antonio Freeman and then he puts up great stats.
Driver is a safe pick and a perfect #2 wideout.

15) Michael Clayton – Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 80 rec, 1,193 yds, 7 TD
I’m not as high on Clayton as a lot of people, mainly because he’ll draw coverage from the opposing team’s top corner this season. Some fantasy owners (Antzo) think he can be a top WR, but I wouldn’t slot him as anything but a #2. A solid #2, don’t get me wrong, but a #2 nonetheless.

16) Steve Smith – Carolina Panthers - 88 rec, 1,110 yds, 7 TD (2003)
It always takes time for players to find their footing after returning from a season-ending injury, so don’t lose faith in Smith if he doesn’t perform early in the season. With Muhsin Muhammad off to the Windy City, Smith should thrive in North Carolina.

17) Nate Burleson – Minnesota Vikings - 68 rec, 1,006 yds, 10 TD
After drawing your attention to FredTayitis yesterday, this afternoon I’ll tell you a little about the horrors of Thrashophobia, a disease that strikes receivers expected to produce in different roles than they are used to.
Doctors at the Strayer University Medical School discovered Thrashophobia in early 2001, after the Philadelphia Eagles signed the Redskins wideout to be their go-to guy for Donovan McNabb.
Thrash was a pleasant surprise for the ‘Skins in 2000, leading the team in receptions and yards. The Eagles, sensing Thrash was on the verge of a breakout year, inserted him as their #1 WR and were pleased when he improved his stats in 2001. But the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Thrash’s YPC jumped only slightly, despite the fact that he was supposed to be more of a downfield threat for the Eagles. And he rarely could create separation between himself and the #1 corners covering him.
It was clear that James Thrash was a solid NFL receiver, but could never be a featured receiver in any team’s offense. The Eagles saw his talent as a #3 receiver in Washington and thought he could do the same as a go-to guy. But as a marked man instead of an afterthought, Thrash struggled greatly. He was excellent at catching balls in the slot while matched up with a nickel corner or speedy linebacker, but once he was playing man coverage against the opposing team’s top corner and had to also contend with safeties, Thrash became a liability.
The Eagles discovered this and Thrash’s numbers dropped in 2002 and 2003, and he is back with the Redskins playing the same role he did in 2000.
This brings up to Nate Burleson, who put up the best numbers for a receiver playing with Randy Moss since Cris Carter retired, but now finds himself “the man” in Minnesota. Without the luxury of playing against the Mike Rumph’s and Nick Harper’s of the NFL, Burleson will have a rude awakening.
Even so, the Vikings will always be a passing team, so Burleson will be good enough as a #2 WR.

18) Chris Chambers – Miami Dolphins - 69 rec, 898 yds, 7 TD
Believe it or not, Gus Frerotte is a huge improvement over the two-headed Feeleyiedler monster from last season. Chambers is a classic Michael Westbrook Syndrome guy, but this might be the year he’s worth taking a risk on.

19) Laveranues Coles – New York Jets - 90 rec, 950 yds, 1 TD
Fact of the day: Laveranues is Latin for “whiny bitch”. I hate Laveranues Coles and hope he gets hit by a New York City cab while crossing the street.
He screwed the Redskins, who were complicit because they let themselves get screwed by him, and for that I have eternal enmity toward the man whom Antzo once wanted to name his first born after (the child would have been known as Laveranues Antzoulatos, man that would have been awesome).
Despite getting the second-most balls in the NFL thrown his way last year, Coles bitched that he wasn’t getting enough catches. Maybe that’s because you actually have to catch the ball you butterfingered bastard.
That being said, I think Coles is a steal at 19.

20) Muhsin Muhammad – Chicago Bears - 93 rec, 1,405 yds, 16 TD
Q: Who was the #1 fantasy WR in 2004?
A: Well, I think I probably gave it away by asking the question where I did. But if I had put it in the blurb about Chris Chambers, you would have been stumped. You know it too.
That’s right, Muhsin Muhammad was the top WR in fantasy last year, don’t worry, I had no clue either, after three mediocre seasons with less than 900 receiving yards. Go figure.
With Rex Grossman, Muhammad figured to be a top 15 receiver, at best. With Chad Hutchinson, Muhammad will be lucky to have as many catches in 2005 as he did touchdown receptions in 2004. It won’t be that bad, but it won’t be pretty either (unless the Bears get smart and play Kyle Orton. He might be my next quarterback man-crush, Wolfman)

21) Issac Bruce – St. Louis Rams - 89 rec, 1,292 yds, 6 TD
If Issac Bruce were named Eddie Bruce, I would call him Steady Eddie. But since his name is Issac and nothing rhymes with Issac, I’ll have to disperse with my verse and call up a nurse to come fix my curse lest I become coerced in a hearse by The Jevon Kearse.
My point is, Issac Bruce is underrated like House. Draft him if you can.

22) Lee Evans – Buffalo Bills - 48 rec, 843 yds, 9 TD
He’s this high mainly because he sounds like he used to star in Westerns with John Wayne and Rory Calhoun.
I like Evans this season, even if I’m not sold on J.P. Losman. If Willis McGahee can run like he did last season, Evans and Eric Moulds should put up good stats.

23) Ashley Lelie – Denver Broncos - 54 rec, 1,084 yds, 7 TD
Somehow, Jake Plummer threw for 4,089 yards last season. And with Rod Smith rapidly approaching his 104th birthday, it figures that Ashley Lelie will be on the receiving end of a lot of those yards.

24) Drew Bennett – Tennessee Titans - 80 rec, 1,247 yds, 11 TD
After this season, I fully expect to rename Thrashophobia Bennettrrhea.
The following factors will contribute to a huge decline in Bennett’s numbers this season: Steve McNair regaining his starting job, the loss of Derrick Mason, the departure of Derrick Mason, Derrick Mason’s absence, the fact that Derrick Mason will be playing in Baltimore and the loss of Derrick Mason.
Every year I identify the most overrated player headed into the fantasy football season. Last August I accurately determined Kevan Barlow, a guy many had in their top five, would be that player in 2004, and he and his 822 rushing yards didn’t disappoint.
This year, Drew Bennett is the most overrated player in fantasy football. (I know I mentioned this yesterday, but I still can’t get over it… Bennett went TWENTY-FREAKIN-NINTH in one of my drafts this weekend. Overall! That’s like playing a pick-up game at the NBA All-Star weekend and, being a captain with your choice of any NBA player or celebrity in attendance, picking Justin Timberlake over LeBron.)
Last year Drew was going up against nickel corners and getting white-boy love from Billy Volek. This year he will draw top coverage and catch balls from the chronically injured Steve McNair.
The wheels are going to fall off the Titans this year and the same will happen to your team if you put any faith in Drew Bennett.

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 1
Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Running Backs

Now that my two fantasy drafts have entered the middle rounds, I am free to release my not-at-all coveted cheat sheets for each position.
Today, we'll look at the running backs.

1) LaDainian Tomlinson – San Diego Chargers - 1,335 rush, 441 rec, 18 TD (2004 stats)
For the first time in two years, there is a consensus overall #1 pick in fantasy football drafts and LaDainian be thy name.
The fifth year back out of TCU is, without a doubt (well, maybe one or two), the player that should go first in every fantasy football league. Tomlinson is a touchdown scoring machine, having reached the endzone 50 times in the past three years. He’s guaranteed to gain at least 1,300 yards on the ground and 500 through the air, barring injury, which almost puts him in a league with Marshall Faulk of the late ‘90s and Priest Holmes of the early-aughts. Almost; he’s not quite there yet though.
Concerns about Danie’s steep decline in per-carry rushing average are well-founded (he went from 5.3 in 2003 to an anemic 3.9 in 2004), but not enough to drop the Chargers back from the top of your draft board.

2) Shaun Alexander – Seattle Seahawks - 1,696 rush, 170 rec, 20 TD
Alexander is a near lock for 1,400 yards and 15 TD, making him as easy a second pick as there is.
Peyton Manning will probably draw a lot of interest from teams drafting second, but remember: Despite having the best passing season for a QB since Dan Marino in ’84, Daunte Culpepper still outscored Peyton in traditional scoring leagues.
You can always get a good QB in the later rounds of a fantasy draft, but if you want a starting back, you’ll have to get one in the first two rounds or get lucky later.
Alexander has demonstrated an uncanny sense of selfishness over his career, and the fact he’s playing in yet another contract year should please his fantasy owners as well.

3) Edgerrin James – Indianapolis Colts - 1,548 rush, 483 rec, 9 TD
It never ceases to amaze me how underrated Edgerrin James is.
In the fantasy football magazine I bought yesterday, they have Edge as the 8th best running back, behind both Domanick Davis and Willis McGahee. Some “expert” on ESPN.com has Corey Dillon ahead of Edge, despite the fact that Corey Dillon had less receiving yards all season than Edgerrin did in a six-day span last October.
What does this all mean? Well, I think two important facts can be gleaned from this information.
1) The word expert is most liberally used when referring to fantasy football writers and Sean Salisbury.
2) Germans love David Hasselhoff.
Both my fantasy drafts were yesterday and I picked Edge in each; with the 6th pick in a 12-team league and at #8 in an 8-team league. This is the second straight year I’ve had in Edge in both leagues and I look forward to 16-weeks of me sitting in front of my computer watching NFL Gameday and yelling at Peyton Manning for throwing a one-yard TD pass to Brandon Freakin’ Stokely.
Even with a lack of short-yardage scores, I still think Edge is the 3rd best pick (pick, not player – I’ll get to that in a moment) at RB.
Think of it this way: Forget what you’ve read on ESPN.com and in other fantasy publications and clear your mind to answer the following question: If you were playing a fantasy football game with your life on the line, who would you want as your #1 running back: Edgerrin James or Domanick Davis.
Exactly; the answer is Lawrence Phillips.

4) Priest Holmes – Kansas City Chiefs - 892 rush, 187 rec, 15 TD
If the NFL were like Madden 2006 and injuries could be turned off with the click of a button, Priest Holmes would be the #1 pick in this draft. But the NFL isn’t like Madden; you can’t toggle injuries (and also aren’t forced to listen to a putrid Godsmack song every 10 minutes). Without that omnipotent power, Priest Holmes becomes the biggest risk/reward pick of the entire draft.
I was glad I wasn’t in a position to draft Priest in either of my leagues; not because I don’t like him, because I do, but because I think the knee injury that kept him out of the last half of the 2004 season will continue to plague him in 2005.
If you’re in a position to draft Priest, use caution. And be sure to pick Larry Johnson by round 5.

5) Willis McGahee – Buffalo Bills - 1,128 rush, 169 rec, 13 TD
Here’s where it gets tricky when drafting RB’s. After the Big Four there are about 14 or 15 backs that are capable of exploding for huge numbers this season; your job is to figure out which one is most likely.
I’m sort of surprised that I chose McGahee, but of all the remaining players at this position he seems most likely to break-through even though he doesn’t catch passes, his rushing average wasn’t very high in 2004 and he’ll be playing behind a quarterback who is essentially a rookie in J.P. Losman.
Wait, why do I have McGahee this high? Maybe because he’ll be the only back getting serious carries in Buffalo and he has a nose for the endzone, which is nice because, as a bonus, every time you hear Chris Berman say “What’chu talkin’ ‘bout Willis?!” on NFL Primetime, you’ll know your fantasy team is doing well.
Willis is a good #1 back, but enough of a risk to make drafting another RB in the second round a necessity.

6) Kevin Jones – Detroit Lions - 1,113 rush, 180 rec, 6 TD
Here’s where I should clarify the logic (or lack thereof) behind my rankings: These are meant to be used simply as a tool during fantasy drafts. I don’t use my board as an exclusive means towards determining my picks, because in each draft, current circumstances dictate each selection.
For instance; yesterday I took Clinton Portis to be my second back over KJ. (Of course, among the running backs that went ahead of both: Curtis Martin, Julius Jones and Rudi Johnson. Don’t laugh; Drew Bennett was the 29th pick in the same draft. Bennett might be the 29th rated receiver on my board.) Why didn’t I follow my board, you ask? Because, in my mind, Portis is the safer pick. Jones has more upside, but I know Portis will be solid (I’ll get to that in a bit) and that’s what I want out of a #2 back.
So why is Jones higher here? He ran solidly last season without any offensive weapons in Detroit. This season Mike Williams joins Roy Williams and Carlos Rogers (assuming he can avoid breaking his leg while grocery shopping) in the Lions receiving corps, which should free-up Jones to run wild.
There are a lot of ifs involved: If Joey Harrington can finally live up to his hype, if Charles Rogers can stay healthy, if having three top-10 receiving picks lining up on the same side doesn’t cause an ego-war, if the Lions don’t let the dream of playing at home in the Super Bowl affect their play, then Jones could be a top fantasy back.
Will it happen? I think he’ll be great, but I’d still pick the 7th-10th guys on this list ahead of him just in case.

7) Corey Dillon – New England Patriots - 1,635 rush, 103 rec, 13 TD
Why can’t Corey get any love? Does he hate children? Kick dogs? Have bad breath? Prefer Jimmy Kimmel to Letterman? Secretly support the reign of Kim Jong-il? It has to be something, because there can’t be any rational explanation for the reason Dillon is so low on many people’s draft boards.
Some chucklehead who calls himself “The Draft Shark” ranks Dillon #15, behind Tatum Bell and LaMont Jordan. Of course this toolbag also has Deuce McAllister as the second-best running back, which he would be if we were ranking black running backs with Irish last names (Willis McGahee would just nudge him out).
But I digress. All Corey Dillon did last year was run for 1,635 yards and score 13 TD for the Super Bowl champs. Sure, Charlie Weis has bolted New England to coach The Wolfman’s favorite college football team, but Dillon still figures to get 1,500 yards and will score more than Jude Law at an Au Pair Association meeting.

8) Deuce McAllister – New Orleans Saints - 1,074 rush, 228 rec, 9 TD
Aaron Brooks, Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn. With three offensive players in the top 10 of their respective positions; you’d imagine the Saints would have made the playoffs in at least one of the previous four seasons. But then you’d remember that Jim Haslett (32-32 in those four seasons) manages to get a solid 40% out of each of his players and that there’s a reason he’s on the verge of breaking Wayne Fontes’ record for most consecutive seasons with name on the coaching hot seat.
Deuce isn’t bad, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable with him as my #1 back.

9) Tiki Barber – New York Giants - 1,518 rush, 578 rec, 15 TD
There’s a new disease that’s frightening doctors from Beijing to Guangxi, and it has nothing to do with Asians, birds or flu. No, compared to this, the Asian Bird Flu looks like the Norwegian Cat Rash. It’s name is FredTayitis, and Tiki Barber has it bad.
FredTayitis afflicts someone who others have a pre-conceived misconception about, despite plenty of evidence which debunks said misconception.
It is named for Jacksonville Jaguars running back Fred Taylor, who for years has battled a reputation as a fragile back in many circles (including, admittedly, this one) despite starting 46 of his past 48 games.
Tiki Barber has come down with a bad case of FredTayitis, stemming from his old rep for fumbling the football at the most inopportune times.
However, last year 23 running backs had a higher fumbles-lost-per-carry average than Barber, who only turned the ball over twice all season. His 13 touchdowns indicate that Giants coach Tom Coughlin trusted Tiki in the redzone.
Despite all this, Barber is still considered to have problems holding onto the ball, which has led many to speculate that rookie Brandon Jacobs will handle the Giants goal line load, to which I say, “poppycock.”
Tiki will get his yards, he’ll get in the endzone (maybe not as often as last year, but often enough) and is a decent #1 back, but as good a #2 back as you’ll get in a traditional 12-team league.

10) Clinton Portis – Washington Redskins - 1,315 rush, 235 rec, 7 TD
I considered putting Portis higher on my list solely on the basis of his performance in the classic Easterns Automotive Commercial that airs in the DC area (a commercial that ranks only behind Shakira’s “El Tortura” video as the greatest thing to accidentally stumble upon while drunk-channel-surfing at 4 a.m. Actually, the Shakira video would be better if Alejandro Sanz was replaced with LaVar Arrington, but that's neither here nor there), but then a few of you would accuse me of being a homer (which I unapologetically am).
Portis was absolutely terrible last season, as were the Redskins. Except for his 64-yard TD run the first time he touched the ball as a Redskin, Clinton couldn’t get anything going behind a beat-up Redskins offensive line.
Among the problems: The ‘Skins blocking schemes were from 1992 and didn’t account for the plethora of blitzes currently employed by NFL coordinators, the team’s receivers didn’t run crisp routes, inside the red zone the team struggled like Britney Spears playing Jeopardy, Mark Brunell couldn’t have broken a glass window with his throws (or hit one, for that matter) and Patrick Ramsey made Redskin fans pine for the days of Jeff Rutledge.
Despite all that, Portis still was the 12th best fantasy running back in the NFL. Read that again: Clinton Portis was as bad as can be last year, but still was the 12th best back, for fantasy purposes, in the league.
Even those who doubt Joe Gibbs and the Redskins will still have to concede that the team’s offense in 2005 will be, at the least, a slight improvement over 2004, so, using that logic, Portis moves up two spots on this list.

11) Domanick Davis – Houston Texans - 1,188 rush, 588 rec, 14 TD
Davis, who is as high as #3 on some boards, scares me. I don’t deny that he is a solid fantasy player and I don’t doubt he’ll have a solid fantasy year.
That being said, the fact that his yards-per-carry plummeted in 2005 (from a 4.3 to a 3.9) once opposing defenses recognized he wasn’t James Allen, is enough to drop him out of my top ten.
The Texans back is great at catching balls out of the backfield, but his struggles in short-yardage situations should give Jonathan Wells some work. I’ve read in numerous places that Davis has a problem holding onto the ball, but he only fumbled twice last year, so don’t read too much into that. That just shows how shoddy research and bad writing can lead to popular misconceptions. And I’m not even talking about MoveOn.org.
I probably have Davis a bit too low, I suppose I’m trying to balance out the people who have him a bit too high, but I know I wouldn’t want to rely on him as my #1 back for 17 weeks.

12) Ahman Green – Green Bay Packers - 1,163 rush, 275 rec, 8 TD
Unlike Tiki and Domanick, Ahman Green’s reputation for fumbling is well-deserved. He does it too much and that’s why he’s so low here. Look for Najeh “Laundry Basket” Davenport to handle the ball near the goal line for the Packers.
Even so, in deep leagues, Ahman is a fine #1 back. He’ll get his yards and score a handful of TDs.

13) Jamal Lewis – Baltimore Ravens - 1,006 rush, 116 rec, 11 TD
Assuming he kept a firm grasp on the soap, Jamal Lewis should experience a return to form in 2005. Chester Taylor should play some on 3rd down, which hurts Lewis’ value, as does his ankle injury, which he rehabbed in The Yard, instead of in Owings Mill at the Ravens practice facility.

14) Julius Jones – Dallas Cowboys - 819 rush, 109 rec, 7 TD
Sure, you could pick him, but then you’d have to deal with the fact that you’d have to root for a Cowboy who’s a Notre Dame alum.
If you have no conscience and can deal with that, Jones is a solid #2 running back… If you have no conscience.
And whether Julius will be helped or hurt by the presence of Drew Bledsoe is anyone’s guess.

15) LaMont Jordan – Oakland Raiders - 479 rush, 112 rec, 2 TD
Jordan falls on many draft boards because of durability questions, questions that arise because Jordan has never run the ball for a full 16 games.
Forget, for a moment, that Jordan has never been asked to be the primary ball carrier for 16 games. Actually, don’t forget that, because it’s kind of important. Knocking him for durability without ever bothering to find out whether he’s durable is like… Well, it’s like something.
With Randy Moss wearing silver and black and taking attention away from the interior, Jordan should thrive in his first year as a featured back.

16) Rudi Johnson – Cincinnati Bengals 1,454 rush, 84 rec, 12 TD
Rudi Johnson is great on the ground, but Rudy Huxtable has better hands. If Chris Perry exhibits any knack for receiving, he’ll eat up some of Johnson’s yards.

17) Curtis Martin – New York Jets - 1,697 rush, 245, rec, 14 TD
Logic dictates that Martin will have nothing in the tank in 2005 after his unexpected resurgence in 2004. But logic said Curtis was washed-up last year, and look what happened.
Let’s not forget, Martin is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and has never rushed for under 1,000 yards in his ten-year NFL career.
His 32-year old body has taken a beating in the NFL (Martin has an insane 3,298 carries in his career, more than Priest Holmes and Ricky Williams combined), but he's always stayed healthy.
Before he got busted for steroids, Rafael Palmeiro would have been the MLB-equivalent of Curtis Martin; an underrated star who never quite got the credit he deserved. But now that Raffy has been proved dirtier than a Tijuanan whorehouse, Curtis is without equal, much like the Popeye's in Potomac, MD.
If you should draft Martin (as a #2 back only), make sure to get a 3rd RB soon after, just in case.

18) Steven Jackson – St. Louis Rams - 673 rush, 189 rec, 4 TD
Jackson is a wild card because of the idiocy of Mike Martz. If the Rams had a real coach, Jackson might be a top ten pick, but with Martz anything can happen so don't be surprised if S-Jack is playing free safety or quarterbacking the scout team sometime this season.

19) Brian Westbrook – Philadelphia Eagles - 812 rush, 703 rec, 9 TD
I’ve been following Brian Westbrook’s career since he starred at DeMatha High School in Maryland and have continued to be fan of his, even after he was drafted by the hated Eagles out of Villanova.
He has the ability to become a top-flight NFL running back in the mold of Priest Holmes, but durability has always been Westbrook’s biggest problem and that’s why he’s so low on my board.
With Correll Buckhalter healthy this year, look for Andy Reid to give Westbrook some rest during games to keep him fresh for the entire season.
Westbrook could be a mid-round steal or could end up on the waiver wire by week 6 due to injury. Take him as a #2 back only and pick up a #3 with your next selection.

20) Tatum Bell – Denver Broncos - 396 rush, 80 rec, 3 TD
If Bell blows-up in week one, remember this before you get all excited and start preparing for your fantasy Super Bowl: Last year Quentin Griffin rushed for more yards in week one than he did in the rest of the season combined.
Funny things happen in Denver, which is why Bell is best viewed as a high-reward risk.

21) Fred Taylor – Jacksonville Jaguars - 1,224 rush, 345 rec, 3 TD
Freddy is the quintessential wing-man. He’ll do all the dirty work, but rarely scores. I drafted him as my 3rd back in my 12-team league, but he’d be fine as a #2 back.

22) Warrick Dunn – Atlanta Falcons - 1,106 rush, 294 rec, 9 TD
Napoleon had Wellington, Chamberlin had Russell and I have Warrick Dunn. It seems that every season I lose a crucial late-season game because Warrick Dunn explodes out-of-nowhere for a 150 yard, 3 TD afternoon.
If you’re playing me in weeks 10-14, take Dunn.

23) Cadillac Williams – Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Rookie
(Warning: Cheesy Cadillac joke forthcoming.)
Many analysts seem to think Jon Gruden will play Michael Pittman ahead of the rookie Williams early in the season. To which I say, why drive a Hyundai when there’s a Cadillac in the garage? (Rimshot!)

24) Larry Johnson – Kansas City Chiefs - 581 rush, 278 rec, 11 TD
As with Cadillac, Johnson is a high-risk, high-reward pick. If, like me, you think Priest Holmes won’t be healthy enough to start 16 games, take Johnson in the middle rounds but make sure you have at least three other running backs on the roster that you’d feel comfortable starting.

I’ll put up my Best of the Rest list once my two drafts are over. If the Colonel doesn’t sell his chicken frying secrets, Chaz shouldn’t have to share his late-round fantasy steals just yet.

Answering Questions Directed Towards Rob Neyer

On Thursday, the best baseball writer in the land, Rob Neyer, hosted a chat on ESPN.com. Today, I'll answer some of those questions as if they were directed towards me.

Josh (Providence, RI): Rob, excluding salary factors, what active pitcher would you most want to start a franchise with?
As exciting as Felix Hernandez and Zach Duke have been over the past few weeks, they are still too young to accurately project how good they'll be down the road. Hernandez, in particular, looks like the second coming of Dwight Gooden (minus the week-long coke binges hopefully) and has already become one of those 'drop-everything-you're-doing-and-watch-his-starts' pitchers, like Greg Maddux in the mid-'90s and Pedro over the past six years.
To answer your question though, I (like Rob Neyer) would probably choose between the A's Rich Harden and Minnesota's Johan Santana, with the slight edge to Santana and his disgusting change-up. But, if I couldn't decide between those two, I'd go with the next natural choice: Kevin Brown.

Sam (Canada): Hi Rob - why do you think the Yankees have had so much trouble with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays this year?
The Yanks have lost 9 of 13 to the D-Rays this season, a bitter pill to swallow anyway, but probably particularly tough for George Steinbrenner, who makes him home in Tampa and probably has to endure countless phone calls from Dick Vitale telling him that the only way to salvage the season is to trade for Ken Griffey and sign J.J. Redick to be the team's 5th starter.
Any explanation for New York's struggles against the lowly D-Rays are a microcosm of their lackluster season, up to now. Poor starting pitching and subpar fielding are to blame for the Yankees woes over all of their 119 games, not just the 13 against Tampa Bay.
But, let's not make too big a deal about a mere 13 games. Thirteen is hardly a big enough sample size to indicate a trend. St. Louis is 3-6 against the Cubs this season, the Rockies have taken two series from the Braves and the Royals swept the Yankees already this season. Strange things happen in baseball.
Don't count the Yankees out yet though, my Canuck friend. Like cockroaches and John Travolta's career, they never seem to die.
Yes, this Yankees team is one of the weakest ones in recent memory, but they are still only 4.5 games behind a Red Sox team with erratic starting pitching and the worst bullpen in the majors and, in the wild card race, are just 1.5 back of an A's team that was just swept by the reeling Orioles.
The only reason people are counting them out is because they are the Yankees and it makes a good story in the dog-days of August to suggest that the Yankees are through. Here in Washington, the Nationals were 4.5 out of the division lead and 1.5 back of the wild card earlier today (they are only .5 back this evening) and the guys on Baseball Tonight were talking about how the Nats (and Marlins, who are 5.5 and 1 back, respectively) are in great shape. It's all just a matter of perspective.

JP (NYC): Rob - Why is everyone writting off a team like the Yanks who are very capable of going on 10 game winning streaks? I mean the A's have just lost 4 in a row and the Sox are only a series ahead of the Yanks with over 40 to play.
Did you not read what I just wrote JP? Oh, right... You're a Yankees fan... You can't read.

Josh (Springfield VA): Rob, do you think Hansen will be up in the majors next week and do you think that he and Papelbon will make a significant impact on the Red Sox this season?
The only way Hansen will be up in the majors next week is if Derek Jeter chooses "Mmmbop" as his at-bat music.
I have no clue what Theo Epstein is going to do with Craig Hansen, the highly-touted St. John's reliever who signed with the Sox just 24 days ago. He's been solid in double-A and reports indicate he could be called up this weekend. With Mike Remlinger and his stellar 54.00 ERA currently in the bullpen, it wouldn't be a shock to see Hansen thrown into the mix. Along with Jon Papelbon, who has been solid, if unspectacular, in his two starts, Hansen could be a catalyst for the BoSox down the stretch.

Derek in Iowa City: What's with the rumors about the two "superstars" that have tested positive for banned substances?
It seems that the rumors I wrote about Tuesday picked up steam yesterday and have the baseball world abuzz. There were some good guesses made as to the rumored players identities on this site, particularly by Craig, who came up with the only player-combinations that were possible based on my clues. He ended up guessing Johnny Damon and Pedro Martinez and was half-right.
The two players that have been rumored to have failed their drug tests and are currently in the appeals process are Johnny Damon and... Roger Clemens.
As I said Tuesday, if this turns out to be true (some anticipate the news to break today) baseball will have a major crisis on its hands.
With Palmeiro's positive test, Bud Selig and the suits in the MLB front office could claim it was an isolated incident and wasn't indicative of a larger trend in the game. But if Clemens and Damon come up dirty, that defense won't work and any rational person will be forced to assume that steroids in baseball aren't the exception, they're the rule.
As much as I love Johnny, part of me hopes these rumors turn out to be true. Not only will this tarnish Clemens reputation, but it will give the Nationals a little help in the Wild Card race and, more importantly, will force baseball to make changes to their weak steroid policy.
If this breaks, it will be the biggest black-eye for baseball since 1919.

Avery (BFE): Rob, Does Torre get the axe if the Yankees don't make the playoffs?
If I were a betting man - well, I am fond of the action, so let me start over.
If I were a man - dammit, hold on...
Hmm, maybe I should rethink how I'm going to start this.
OK, here goes: Joe Torre won't be managing the New York Yankees next year, regardless of what happens the rest of the season.
Torre is too old to be dealing with George Steinbrenner's crap and has to be sick of all the veiled threats and barbed comments coming from the old bastard's mouth. Torre, as classy a man as they come, deserves way better than that and has to figure that there are more constructive ways to spend his twilight than putting up with a blowhard like Steinbrenner.
But, Steinbrenner isn't stupid and will never out-and-out fire Joe Torre, they'll probably just come to an agreement that Torre will resign his post as the longest-serving, and most successful, Yankees manager since Casey Stengel.
Hypothetically though, if Torre wanted to stay, simply making the playoffs wouldn't save his job, as ridiculous as that sounds. In Steinbrenner's eyes, the Yankees aren't built to make the playoffs, they're built to win the World Series and they haven't done since Bill Clinton was in the White House.

Frank (London): Gary, why is Christian Guzman still in the majors? He is aweful at the plate and not even that good anymore in the field. Thx.
Is that the way they spell "awful" in England, or is that just a typo. Either way, I think "aweful" is a fantastic way to describe Cristian Guzman.

aweful
adj.

1. Awe-inspiring terribleness.
2. Disbelieving awfulness.
e.g. Cristian Guzman's aweful .188 batting average has inspired scores of his Dominican brethren to claim the Nationals shortstop is actually Puerto Rican.

My hatred of Guzman is well-documented (many can attest to the fact that I have been yelling about the signing since that fateful day it was announced. On Opening Day in Philly I told my buddy Falkow that I had two missions for the baseball season:
1) Get people in the D.C. area to start referring to Brad Wilkerson as "Big Daddy"
2) Using a stolen DeLorean and a flux capacitor made from old pinball machine parts, build a time machine, kidnap Michael J. Fox and make him go back to February to prevent both Cristian Guzman's signing and old Biff from giving his younger self the exact score of the Super Bowl, which enabled young Biff to get the money to set up BiffCo which financed the paying-off of the refs in the Wake Forest-West Virginia NCAA Tournament game.
So far I have a few people calling Wilkerson Big Daddy, but I'm having trouble getting the plutonium I need for my second plan.) so there's no need to go into it further at the moment.
And by the way Frank, who the hell is Gary?

James (Las Vegas, NV): Rob, At this time, who is the best eligible player not currently in the HOF?
The list begins and ends with RBI Baseball legend Ruppert Jones.

Anand (New York, NY): How much of a disappointment has Paul DePodesta been as the Dodgers GM? How bad does signing Derek Lowe to that albatross of a contract look now?
One of the protagonists in Moneyball, DePodesta has done little in his brief stint as Dodgers GM to suggest any similarities to his mentor Billy Beane.
(An aside: Normally, I agree with Michael Wilbon on most issues, but I can't stand how he has recently been ripping Billy Beane because the A's flame out in the first round of the playoffs.
It's not just Wilbon though, idiots like Joe Morgan and John Kruk have been on Beane's case too, presumably because Morgan and Kruk have an ingrained dislike for anybody who can actually form a rational thought.
Beane, working with one of the lowest payrolls in the league, has seen his team get to the playoffs in four of the last five years. And he's done it while losing two MVP's (Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada) and nearly every other star player to come through the Bay Area. That's simply amazing.
Beane is the best GM in the game and should be respected as such. It's not his fault the A's can't be the Yankees or Red Sox in October the same way the Braves' playoff woes can't be pinned on John Schuerholz.
Blame the team and managers for an inability to win in October; the GM's job is done by that point.
I have more to say about this, but have strayed way too far off-topic already.)
The Derek Lowe signing was simply insane; DePodesta was taking a cue from NBA GM's and rewarding a player for his performance in the playoffs and turning a blind-eye to Lowe's crappy 2004 season.

Dan (Bosto