Championship Game Predictions
NFC Championship Game
Atlanta Falcons (+ 5) at Philadelphia Eagles
I’ve been relatively surprised, and quite pleased, that the media hasn’t hyped the Vick-McNabb showdown in terms of race too much this week.
If everybody focused on the fact that this is the first meeting of black quarterbacks in an NFC Championship, it would obscure the bigger picture – that this meeting of star-QBs is the best such match-up in a title game since Steve Young and Brett Favre went head-to-head seven years ago.
With the way that mainstream media handles racial issues in sports (making a big deal out of it, while trying to act like it shouldn't be a big deal), one could have expected a full week of stories about the evolution of black quarterbacks, profiles of Doug Williams or Willie Thrower or a history of racial scandals in sports from Jimmy the Greek to Rush Limbaugh.
But, that hasn't happened this week. There have been some, to be sure, but overall the media has chosen to make the pre-game hype simply about the game, which is nice.
Some of the coverage I just lamented took place in the Tuesday editions of The Washington Post. The newpaper ran two items on its sports front about the racial implications of the title game, one of which detailed the struggles of black quarterbacks throughout NFL history.
The other was a column by Michael Wilbon, in which (much like the rest of the media coverage of this non-event) he insisted that the game’s racial issue wasn’t a big deal, even as he was making it one.
Although his column was a jumble of contradictions, Wilbon was right – the fact that both McNabb and Vick are black isn’t a big deal.
However, the fact that there will be a lot of white on the field this Sunday is.
If the weathermen get it right (a big if, mind you, seeing as how they completely blew the forecast in Boston last week. (By the way, does anybody else think Bill Belichick had something to do with that? With the way he manipulates the media and illegally deceives the league with his injury reports, bribing some local meteorologists to call for clear skies, which would give the Colts a false sense of confidence, really seems like the next logical step.) Where was I… right, the snow) then the Eagles might have trouble on the offensive side of the ball.
Brian Westbrook is only as good as the Eagles' passing game. And if Donovan McNabb is unable to get into a groove because of the weather (read: wind), then the Falcons can focus on stuffing the line to stop Westbrook and he'll be ineffective.
Even if the weather is fine, the loss of T.O. hurts the Philly rushing attack. Instead of double-covering Owens, the Falcons secondary can play man on Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell and leave a few linebackers in the box for Westbrook.
(And before you ask, no, I’m not on the Fred-Ex bandwagon. I do plan on laughing as said bandwagon blows a tire, hurtling riders into the air, after Mitchell drops a few balls and fumbles in a critical situation.
I didn’t realize that one big game is enough to validate an otherwise immensely disappointing career.
Let’s not forget that, somehow, Mitchell caught only 22 passes this season, even though he theoretically should have been lined-up against linebackers and nickel corners due to Owens. “The People’s Champ” (by earning that title, Mitchell is now part of a long line of PC’s throughout history including Donny Osmond, that black guy from Miami Vice, Tina Yothers, Vanilla Ice, Benoit Benjamin, David Hasslehoff’s landlord and Howard Dean) amazingly caught 13 less balls with T.O. than he did without (35 receptions in 2003).
For his career, Mitchell has less catches than Tony Gonzalez had in the final 13 weeks of this season.
Not bad for a former first round draft choice.
Daily readers of this blog (thanks you two!) know my thoughts on drafting a receiver in the first round (mainly, don't) and the 2001 draft is really all the proof I need to back me up.
Mitchell isn’t even the biggest bust of that year’s receiving crop, if you can believe that.
The Bears selected David Terrell with the 8th pick. His nine career touchdowns are less than Brandon Stokley’s total this season.
They passed up on Koren Robinson, a leading contender for the 2005 pre-season Michael Westbrook award. At least Robinson has had one good season, but since his breakout sophomore year he has regressed and apparently forgotten that the simple act of catching the ball is one of the key components of receiving.
Maybe it was something in the water in the theatre at Madison Square Garden that day because the Redskins pick, Rod Gardner, has a similar affliction.
Gardner will likely be cut after June 1, which is all you really need to know about his career in Washington.
Santana Moss went next and is easily the spoiled cream of the sour first round crop. Still, he’s not as good as some of the gems teams found later in the draft like Reggie Wayne (30) Chad Johnson (36th pick), Steve Smith (74).
Even guys like Justin McCareins (124) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (204) have put up better seasons than some of the first round guys.
Mitchell went #25 to the Eagles and has been a non-factor since his draft and should still be considered a bust. One big day against a Vikings secondary that made even the Redskins offense look good doesn’t change that.
After all, even Rashaan Salaam once had a 130 yard, 3 TD day.)
Wow, nearly 1,000 words and I’ve barely said anything that could pass as a game preview.
Well, here goes:
Just in case you’ve been living under a rock that lives underneath a bigger rock, this is the fourth straight year the Eagles will play in the NFC Championship Game (and the third straight at home).
In each of those games, Philly was beat a team that might not have been better overall, but dominated in one facet of the game.
The 2001 Rams had an explosive offense and took advantage of the fast track at the Edward Jones Dome, while the Bucs and Panthers had the best defenses in the NFC in the years they knocked off Philly. Each team played to their strengths in those title games and went to the Super Bowl because of them.
This year, the Falcons rushing attack could be their catalyst to Jacksonville. Their running game is so potent it makes one wonder if Atlanta coaches are slipping Cialis into the sideline Gatorade.
Much has been made about the resurgence of Jeremiah Trotter, and while its true that he’s playing infinitely better football than he did during his time with the Redskins, the Atlanta coaches should go right at him, hoping that he’ll give up at the first sign of adversity, as is his usual M.O..
If Dunn, Duckett and Vick get going and combine for 200 yards, the Falcons will win.
The defense will need to stop them, of course, but it's up to Donovan to make sure that those runners don't get enough carries to reach that plateau.
If McNabb can get the Eagles out to an early lead and force Michael Vick to use his arm, then Philly’s run of championship futility will end.
Forget what Donovan says - all the pressure is on him this week and he will definitely be feeling it. McNabb has been terrible in each of the three Championship Game losses, yet has gotten a pass from the media for it.
Peyton Manning gets lambasted for not taking the Colts to a Super Bowl, yet McNabb has been on the doorstep three times and nobody says anything bad about him.
Consider this: In his three Championship Games, McNabb has a 53% completion percentage, one TD and five INT. Last year he went 10/22 for 100 yards with no TD and three picks against the Panthers. His rating for that game was lower than Peyton Manning’s was in his game that day against the Pats, but Peyton is still getting ripped for his performance while everybody seems to have forgotten about Donners'.
It goes without saying that if Donovan continues his poor play in big games, he will make it 0 for 4 in title games and will likely hear the same boos from Eagles fans that he heard the day he was drafted.
I guess I should get around to making a pick... All I know is that this is a game where you can throw analysis out the window.
Without T.O., the Eagles air attack is crippled. If it snows, then it will be dead. And since Brian Westbrook isn’t good enough to carry his team into the Super Bowl, it might be a low scoring affair for the Iggles.
Despite the rave reviews the diminutive back from suburban D.C. gets from the “talent” on ESPN, it helps to remember that Westbrook only had 812 yards on the season and had just two games where he rushed for more than 75 yards (none since week four).
On paper, the Eagles look like they have no chance offensively. Throw in the Falcons #1 ground game playing against a Philly defense that ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards per attempt, and suddenly that five-point line looks like it should be turned around.
Atlanta’s defense slowed the Rams, but St. Louis was playing without Issac Bruce. Coupled with the Martz Factor (one out of every three games in which Mike Martz coaches, his team will inexplicably look like the ’76 Bucs), that defensive performance is probably a bit of an anomaly.
I’ve been picking against the Falcons all season long, even doing so last week despite knowing that the Rams really didn’t stand a chance. Each time I’ve picked against the Falcons though, I’ve been doing just that - picking against the Falcons. I’ve always made my predictions based on my assertion that Atlanta wasn’t that good, that Michael Vick was overrated, that their stellar defense was a mirage, etc.
This time, though, I am giving the Falcons the respect that they deserve and won’t pick against them.
I just happen to think that the Eagles are due.
Pick: Philadelphia (straight-up and –5)
AFC Championship Game
New England Patriots (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
In a 12-hour stretch last Sunday the Patriots went from being everybody’s favorite punching bag to an indestructible dynasty on the cusp of their third Super Bowl title, with the games themselves seemingly a mere formality en route to their inevitable coronation.
Really though, New England has always been somewhere in the middle. They never should have been underdogs to the Colts (not Vegas-wise, but perception-wise) and even though they’re a great team, they have many holes and still need to get through two tough games in order to win their dynasty-clinching Super Bowl.
Even though the Steelers have won 11 straight games at Heinz Field, New England is favored by three points, and deservedly so.
Ben Roethlisberger played horrendously against the Jets and was lucky that Herm Edwards failed to follow his credo of playing to win the game when he played conservatively, deciding to settle for a lengthy Doug Brien field goal instead of trying to move the ball further into Steelers territory.
With the way that Bill Belichick runs the defense, the rookie QB will likely be harassed all day long, which will force some long sacks and big interceptions.
Despite the genius on the sidelines (with the way the media praises Belichick’s D, the players seem almost secondary to the coach's schemes. But even if Bill's game plan is the most brilliant work since Einstein discovered the theory of relativity, the players still have to execute it. Yet, you never hear any of the players mentioned, Belichick gets all the credit. I suppose me, the Wolfman, Antzo, Falkow and the current members of Menudo could throw on Pats jerseys and win the Super Bowl, as long as Belichick was the coach. Next year, the AFC Championship might be played in “Coach” mode on Madden 2006, since players don’t seem to matter anymore), the Steelers still will have success running the ball.
That might not matter if New England gets out to an early lead, but the Patriots tend to win their games late, rather than early, so Bettis and Staley need to get going if they want to be playing in Jacksonville.
Much has been made of the Steelers domination of the Pats back in October, but all that game shows is that a) New England isn’t unbeatable and b) Corey Dillon, not Tom Brady, is the team’s MVP.
With Dillon sidelined that day, the Patriots managed only five rushing yards.
Roethlisberger picked them apart (18/24, 2 TD) and, thus, the legend of Big Ben was born. Unfortunately for him, the rest of the league caught up pretty quickly when they got tape on him and were able to see what he was all about.
On those tapes opposing coaches saw a quarterback who thrives in short yardage situations and plays like a veteran – checking off receivers, reading his hot routes, throwing the ball away when necessary and taking charge in the huddle. But, the tapes also show a rookie, prone to making rookie mistakes.
The two throws against the Jets were prime examples.
Belichick will try to put Roethlisberger in situations that will increase the likelihood of him making a mistake, so look for lots of pressure coming from the middle on obvious passing downs and defensive ends to drop back in coverage in an attempt to steal an easy pick. Masking formations, switching in and out of zone coverages, corner blitzes – Belichick will do it all.
But don’t sleep on the Steelers defense. While all the focus this week has been on the Pats (I’m guilty of it too), the Pittsburgh D finished the year ranked #1 and is, arguably, a better unit.
Their 3-4 alignment gave Tom Brady fits in their earlier meeting (2 INT), but that won’t deter Charlie Weis from calling pass plays this time around. The Pittsburgh defense should be effective against Corey Dillon, but the fact that they’ll have to account for him will open up the near passing lanes for Brady who is the most effective short passer in the NFL.
Playing at Heinz Field will be big (it far outweighs the non-existent “experience” factor), but in the end, the towel-waving crowd decked out in their finest black and yellow will leave disappointed, unless they bet on their team, because the Pats won’t cover.
Pick: New England
Last Week (Straight-Up): 2-2
Last Week (Spread): 2-2
Playoffs to Date (Straight-Up): 4-4
Playoffs to Date (Spread): 5-3