The Passion of the Damon
An article in yesterday's Boston Globe about Johnny "Chief Stealing Bases" Damon hinted that the Sox centerfielder might have some competition for the leadoff spot this year in Pokey Reese.
Neither player can be looked at as an exceptional leadoff man, their on-base percentages are much too low for that distinction, but each player has their advantages.
Pokey Reese, who has been injured much of the last two seasons, is a poor hitter. His .251 lifetime batting average and microscopic .310 on-base percentages don't belie this fact. The Sox signed Pokey for his glove though.
Todd Walker, the Sox 2nd baseman last year, is a much better hitter than Reese, but his glovework was reminiscint of me in 2nd grade Little League. Theo Epstein decided to go with a glove instead of a bat at second, and this was a good move.
The Red Sox had no problem scoring last year. And even though most fans remember Walker's heroics in the playoffs, he had kind of an off-year at the plate. (The second-bagger, now with the Chicago Cubs, had his lowest OPS (on base + slugging average) since 1999 last year).
So Walker wasn't that much of a threat in the Sox offense. With Nomar, Manny, David Ortiz, Bill Mueller and Kevin Millar hitting behind him, Walker didn't need to be a huge run producer. And he wasn't. That is part of why he was expendable.
His defensive play was the main reason. Walker simply had an anemic glove. Many a double play was lost last year because of Walker's weak pivot, and his range at second would have made him a perfect double play partner with Derek Jeter.
Reese has won two gold-gloves and with the Sox needing to shore up their infield, they decided to acquire him. The knock on Pokey is that he has no bat, but statistics can be deceiving.
Let's compare:
AVG OBP SLG OPS WS/3
Todd Walker .290 .346 .434 .780 16
Pokey Reese .251 .310 .357 .667 15
Johnny Damon .284 .347 .425 .772 19
WS/3 = Win Shares over the last three years, as compiled by The Bill James Baseball Handbook
Walker, the supposed best hitter of the group, only has slightly higher averages than Damon, yet his fielding woes are evident in his lower win shares. Reese, whose batting averages are much lower than Walker, actually has a similar win shares because of his better fielding and he gains point when park factor is taken into account.
In short, the upgrade the Sox are making with Pokey Reese in the field, far outweighs the downgrade at the plate.
But the question still remains, who should bat leadoff?
You can make an argument for Reese or Damon, but I think one thing is clear: The two shouldn't bat 1st and 2nd in the order. Having two below-average hitters with mediocre on-base percantages at the top of the order would handcuff Nomar and company in driving in runs.
Instead, I'd leave Damon at leadoff, and drop Reese to 7th or 8th in the order (essentially, flip-flopping him with Bill Mueller.) Jason Varitek batting 9th worked great last year and he should do it again. I'll talk more about the Sox lineup during my baseball preview in a few weeks.
While Damon doesn't get on base as much as your prototypical leadoff man, he does take a lot of pitches, which is a huge boost to the Sox offense. Last year only Jason Giambi saw more pitches in the American League (2916 to 2850), which is amazing considering nobody ever pitches around Johnny Damon.
By looking at so many pitches, Damon wears the pitcher down and helps guys in the batting order get a feel for said pitcher's ryhthm.
Reese also sees a large amount of pitches, but not as much as Damon.
For that reason, Johnny Damon should bat leadoff for the Boston Red Sox in 2004.
If not, he can always try out for a role in Mel Gibson's next movie.
